ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240319_T To move between 1380-1400 |
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Market today | The SET is expected to be range-bound. Although rising oil price will support the index through the Energy sector, investors are cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting, limiting the upper bound to 1395-1400; the lower bound is at 1380. A fall below this would be negative, with the next support at 1370. | Today’s highlights | • China reported higher-than-expected industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment figures for January-February, reflecting recovery after the government engaged in stimulus measures at the end of last year.
• WTI and Brent crude oil prices reached their highest levels since October 2023 following Iraq's preparation to reduce crude exports to 3.3mn bbl/day to compensate for overproduction by OPEC+.
• Alphabet's stock rose by 4.4%DoD from negotiations between Apple and Google to use the AI model Gemini in iPhones, strengthening the partnership in the search system.
• EPPO forecasts a 3.1% growth in energy demand for Thailand this year due to recovering exports, tourism and higher temperatures in the hot season. Last year, energy demand grew 0.8%, with a 2.6% fall in industrial electricity consumption. The National Energy Policy Committee plans to announce an energy plan in September and will open for public hearings on five plans in early April. The Power Development Plan (PDP) aims at 50% renewable energy by 2080.
• Digital TV executives met with the NBTC to submit two requests: cancellation of the auction of channels after licenses expire in 2029 and opposition to the auction of the 3500 MHz band, which could impact business and viewership.
• The SEC said companies listed on the Thai stock market (SET and mai) paid dividends of over Bt593bn in 2023. Over the past 10 years, the dividend payout has grown by an average of 4.49% per year. The top three sectors with the highest dividend payouts in 2023 were Energy, Banks and ICT. | Strategy today | In the short term, the Thai capital market is expected to continue recovering and stand above 1400, supported by hopes for disbursement of the government budget and by hopes the FOMC meeting keeps interest rate unchanged and signals a cut in the second half of the year. The strategy is “Selective Buy”. | Trading today | In the short term the SET is expected to continue recovering and stand above 1400 on hopes the Fed will signal an interest rate cut in June. We recommend “Selective Buy” in four main themes:
1) Speculative stocks: stocks whose price is lagging and likely to have good dividends, a higher dividend payout ratio and trading at a higher PER – Banking (BBL and KBANK), Property Development (AP) and Telecommunication (ADVANC).
2) Speculative stocks on a technical basis after prices have broken a downtrend and NVDR has turned to a net buy in March – IVL, GULF and BDMS.
3) Speculative stocks expected to gain from manufacturing recovery (especially China), and whose operating results have passed the bottom. These are also our 2Q24 Top Picks – AOT, GFPT, GULF, KCE and SCGP.
4) Long-term investors are recommended to invest via DCA accumulation as the stock prices are undervalued, and operating results are strong – BBL, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, PTT and SCC. | Daily top picks | BEM: Profit is expected to exhibit the most outstanding recovery among land transport peers and there are many catalysts: a raise in MRT fares, expected to be announced at the beginning of June, a decision on the West Orange Line project and the double-deck expressway construction project in 2H24.
PTT: 1Q24 profit is expected to improve QoQ from higher GRM on lower inventory loss, while its diverse businesses will stabilize long-term profit. Valuation is not expensive, trading at PBV of 0.8x and PER of 9.1x, compared to 10-year historical average of 1.3x and 14.6x, respectively. | Today’s reports | Land Transportation – Recovery mixed this year | | Click here to read and/or download file Daily240319_E |
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