ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240320_T 1 Range-bound, waiting for FOMC |
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Market today | The SET is expected to be range-bound, with the upper bound limited at resistances of 1390 and 1395 on caution ahead of the FOMC meeting, while the lower bound is at supports of 1375 and 1370. The Energy sector is expected to support the index thanks to high oil price. | Today’s highlights | • Today's FOMC meeting will be closely watched, with the FedWatch Tool indicating a 99% probability the Fed will keep interest rate at 5.25-5.50%. However, the probability of a rate cut in Jun has fallen from 69% earlier this week to 59%.
• The BOJ has decided to raise its policy rate to a range of 0 to 0.1% from -0.1%, the first rate hike in 17 years. It will also discontinue the Yield Curve Control (YCC) mechanism, ending years of negative interest rate policy.
• Russia plans to increase oil exports from its western ports in March by nearly 200,000 barrels per day, aiming for a monthly target of 2.15mn barrels per day amid attacks by drones from Ukraine targeting Russian oil refineries, causing a loss of production of around 600,000 barrels per day.
• Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund is preparing to invest in building AI technology to make it another center for AI, apart from the US.
• Nvidia's stock rose by over 1%DoD after unveiling the Blackwall B200 AI chip, which is 30 times faster than previous models, with plans to deliver it within this year.
• The MoF announced lower-than-expected government revenue collection, signaling a slowdown in the economy due to reduced purchasing power, despite continuous high interest rates.
• The PM is will meet with the Digital Economy Policy Committee in the next 1-2 weeks before negotiating with coalition parties in preparation for a major conference, confirming that the government will receive funds from this project. | Strategy today | In the short term, the Thai capital market is expected to continue recovering and stand above 1400, supported by hopes for disbursement of the government budget and by hopes the FOMC meeting keeps interest rate unchanged and signals a cut in the second half of the year. The strategy is “Selective Buy”. | Trading today | In the short term the SET is expected to continue recovering and stand above 1400 on hopes the Fed will signal an interest rate cut in June. We recommend “Selective Buy” in four main themes:
1) Speculative stocks: stocks whose price is lagging and likely to have good dividends, a high dividend payout ratio and trading at a higher PER – Banking (BBL and KBANK), Property Development (AP) and Telecommunication (ADVANC).
2) Speculative stocks on a technical basis after prices have broken a downtrend and NVDR turned to a net buy in March – IVL, GULF and BDMS.
3) Speculative stocks expected to gain from manufacturing recovery (especially China), and whose operating results have bottomed. These are also our 2Q24 Top Picks – AOT, GFPT, GULF, KCE and SCGP.
4) Long-term investors are recommended to invest via DCA accumulation as the stock prices are undervalued, and operating results are strong – BBL, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, PTT and SCC. | Daily top picks | PTTEP: In the short term the company benefits from the rise in crude oil price to a four-month high. Brent and WTI closed at US$87.38 (+0.56%DoD) and $83.48/bbl (+0.91%DoD) on concerns of tight oil supply after Russian refineries were attacked by Ukraine, while demand in China and US are strong. Recommend Buy for trading at no more than Bt155/share.
CPALL: SSS growth in 1Q24TD is the highest in the sector, and will raise 1Q24 profit YoY. 2024 profit is expected to grow 17.4% to Bt21bn on better sales and margin at the CVS business and higher contribution from CPAXT, which does not include any upside from new stimulus. | Today’s reports | Electronic Components – Soft 1H24, with strong 2H24 recovery
Petrochemicals – Rising naphtha cost again bit into spread | | Click here to read and/or download file Daily240320_E |
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