ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240221_T (1)Limited recovery, signs still negativeMarket todayThe SET began to move below 1380, a previous support, generating a negative technical indicator. The market lacks a new catalyst, meaning it will likely continue falling with next supports at 1375 and 1370. Recovery is limited with resistances at 1390 and 1396.Today’s highlights• PBoC cut 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 25bps to 3.95%, the first cut in the eight months since Jun 2023.
• Japanese semiconductor manufacturers are benefiting from China demand as a result of the US trade curb on China. China is at the same time promoting its domestic chip industry.
• Iron ore price has fallen to a 3-month low although China has announced a package to support the housing market as investors are worried iron demand may not recover strongly after Chinese New Year.
• Armed Houthi rebels in Yemen, supported by Iran, claim they attacked two US ships with missiles in the Gulf of Eden.
• The European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) reported new vehicles registrations increased 11% to 1.02mn units in Jan, supported by recovery of EV demand.
• NVDA saw profit-taking due to concerns on valuation before earnings announcement on Wednesday night, leading to profit-taking in technology and semiconductor stocks.
• The cabinet has approved the extension of visa exemption for tourists from Kazakhstan for another six months, until Aug 31, 2024, as spending by these tourists is high, supporting the Thai tourism industry.Strategy today In the short term the SET is expected to still be range-bound with no new catalyst, either domestic or external. Investors are waiting for the gradual release of 4Q23 earnings, which are expected to be weak, and US economic figures, also coming out gradually but already in the market to some extent. The strategy is “Selective Buy”.Trading todayWeekly portfolio: In the short term the SET is expected to be range-bound, lacking a new catalyst and awaiting the release of 4Q23 earnings results. We recommend “Selective Buy” in three main themes:
1) Stocks that benefit from the steady recovery of tourism with more foreign tourists, but this is not yet reflected in stock prices – AOT and MINT.
2) Short-term investors (3-4 months) who want to invest in high-quality dividend stocks during dividend season, scheduled to announce this week (XD between Mar–May 2024), with expected yield on 2023 (after deducting interim dividend) of over 5% - AP, BCP and KTB.
3) Long-term investors are recommended to invest via DCA accumulation as now would be good timing since the SET has fallen significantly, risk is low and stocks are undervalued – BBL, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, PTT and SCC, all of which are in SET100 and are leaders in their industries with ESG ratings of AAA and AA, valuation lower than 10-year historical average and strong operating results.
For the short term we recommend being cautious on stocks whose 4Q23 results may be weaker than expected – BJC, HMPRO, GLOBAL, ZEN, AU, CPF, BTG, AWC and SIRI. Daily top picksGFPT: Core profit beat estimate by 10% on high equity income. It is expected to continue growing YoY in 1Q24 from higher export volume, especially to Europe, and a wider export margin, with declining animal feed cost.
GULF: 4Q23 net profit was strong. 1Q24 net profit is expected to grow QoQ on higher demand for electricity from industrial customers and the March startup of GULF PD (IPP). A new long-term PDP is expected to have s high proportion of RE power plants, which will be a long-term growth catalyst.Today’s reportsPetrochemicals – Upward price adjustment lifts spread
AP – 4Q23: Earnings in line
GFPT – 4Q23: Beat estimates on equity income
MTC – 4Q23: Beat on lower credit cost
SCCC – 4Q23: Strong recovery QoQ on cost savings
SPALI – 4Q23: Slight beat to forecast
SPRC – 4Q23: Net loss was as expected
THREL – 4Q23: Stable underwriting profit; miss on tax
TU – 4Q23: In line with estimates Click here to read and/or download file Daily240221_E |
