ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240321_T Must pass 1390 to be good |
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Market today | The Fed still signaled three rate cuts this year, but indicators are poor for SET recovery with resistances at 1380 and 1390 which the index needs to break through for indicators to turn positive. The lower bound is at support of 1365. If the index falls below that, it is expected to fall back to its previous low at 1350. | Today’s highlights | • The Fed decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 5.25-5.50%, in line with market expectations. However, the Dot Plot still indicates three rate cuts this year of 25bps each for a total of 75bps. The Fed remains cautious about inflation, expecting it to moderate gradually.
• The EIA reported a larger-than-expected decrease in US crude oil inventories of 1.9mn bbl last week despite higher crude oil exports, while refineries ramped up processing rates.
• The BoE is expected to result in keep its benchmark interest rate at 5.25%, amidst expectations that the it might cut rates later this year. This comes after lower-than-expected inflation numbers in Feb and a slowdown from Jan.
• Intel Corp. received government funding of US$8.5bn under US law related to chips and science to expand its chip business in the US.
• Tesla's stock rose 2.5%DoD after the company confirmed plans to increase the price of its Model Y electric cars produced in China by 5,000 yuan (US$694.55) starting from Apr 1.
• PTTEP announced that natural gas production at the Arthit field on Mar 20 reached 800 million cubic feet per day, exceeding the original target for the first time and faster than expected.
• Central Food Retail Company Limited, a subsidiary of CRC, is planning to expand its mini-supermarket business in Thailand under the Tops Daily brand, aiming to increase the franchise growth rate to 45% from the current 30% for all branches. | Strategy today | In the short term, the Thai capital market is expected to continue recovering and stand above 1400, supported by hopes for disbursement of the government budget and after the Fed kept interest rate unchanged but still signals three cuts this year. The strategy is “Selective Buy”. | Trading today | In the short term the SET is expected to continue recovering and stand above 1400 on hopes the Fed will signal an interest rate cut in June. We recommend “Selective Buy” in four main themes:
1) Speculative stocks: stocks whose price is lagging and likely to have good dividends, a high dividend payout ratio and trading at a higher PER – Banking (BBL and KBANK), Property Development (AP) and Telecommunication (ADVANC).
2) Speculative stocks on a technical basis after prices have broken a downtrend and NVDR turned to a net buy in March – IVL, GULF and BDMS.
3) Speculative stocks expected to gain from manufacturing recovery (especially China), and whose operating results have bottomed. These are also our 2Q24 Top Picks – AOT, GFPT, GULF, KCE and SCGP.
4) Long-term investors are recommended to invest via DCA accumulation as the stock prices are undervalued, and operating results are strong – BBL, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, PTT and SCC. | Daily top picks | GPSC: In the short term it benefits from declining European natural gas price and US bond yield. It is believed to have passed the worst, with less pressure now from lower fuel cost giving higher profit, bringing 2024 core profit growth of 49%.
TIDLOR: Profit is expected to recover strongly with 18.7% growth in 2024 core profit, supported by growing loans and fee revenue and lower credit cost as new NPLs are believed to have peaked in 2023. Profit in 2025 is expected to grow 25%, backed by lower credit cost. | Today’s reports | ACE – Entering a new growth phase
THANI – Shrinking loans, lower NIM, higher ECL | | Click here to read and/or download file Daily240321_E |
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