CRC – ความกังวลเกี่ยวกับร้านค้ารูปแบบใหม่สะท้อนในราคาหุ้นแล้ว FOMC meeting outcome pressures |
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Market today | The SET is expected to continue to be pressured down after the Fed signals one more raise in interest rate this year and that it will keep the rate higher for longer. Supports are at 1,500 and 1,490, while resistances are at 1,515 and 1,520. Technical indicators are still negative and there is no sign of a rebound. | Today’s highlights | • The Fed kept interest rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as expected, but signalled one more step up in the rate this year, and will keep monetary policy tight until next year. US 2023 GPD forecast is raised from 1.0% to 2.1%, with inflation in 2023 expected at 3.3% with 2.5% in 2024, returning to the to 2% target by 2026, slower than expected.
• EIA reported a drop in US crude oil inventory of 2.1 MMbbl last week, more than the expected 0.7 MMbbl. GS said higher oil demand and supply cut extension led to an oil market deficit and expects Brent next year to be US$80-105/barrel.
• The UK extended a ban on combustion engine vehicles from 2030 to 2035, in line with the EU policy of halting production of vehicles emitting greenhouse gas by 2035.
• Thai 10-yr bond yield rose to 3.2%, this year’s highest. ThaiBMA said this is due to oversupply of bonds, causing selling pressure.
• The prime minister is talking with Microsoft and Google today, inviting them to invest in data centers in Thailand and announced at the UNGA78 meeting that Thailand’s target investment in green business has been raised to US$45bn from US$12.5bn.
• The ERC has talked with PTT and EGAT about charging Bt3.99/unit for electricity in Sep-Dec 2023. PTT will reduce the gas fee charged from electricity generation to not more than Bt304.89/mmBTU, while EGAT is asked to continue handling Bt100bn debt. | Strategy today | The SET is seen to move in a bound of 1,500-1,540 as lacking new catalyst to stimulate investment atmosphere. Domestically, follow the government additional stimulus package, while external factors are monetary policy meetings of central banks; Fed (Sep 21), BoE (Sep 21) and BoJ (Sep 22). Recently, the Fed keeps interest rate flat 5.25-5.00% as expected, while BoE and BoJ are expected to keep tightening stance. Our investment strategy is for "Selective Buy". | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: There is little on board to move the market as participants wait for the monetary policy meetings of three central banks, the Fed, BoE and BoJ. Our investment strategy is “Selective Buy” in themes with specific drivers:
1) Companies expected to benefit from the government stimulus packages (cutting electricity and diesel prices, pausing agricultural loans and visa-free entry for Chinese) and whose 2H23 profit is expected to grow YoY or pass bottom – CPALL, CRC, OSP, HTC, AOT, ERW, KCE and HANA.
2) Our 4Q23 top picks – AOT, BCH, CRC, KCE and KTB.
3) Stocks for speculation on better purchasing power in the Middle East as oil price rises (petrodollar theme) – AH, BH, PTTEP and BCP.
In the medium term we recommend to be cautious on stocks that are expected to be affected by El Nino, which will erode purchasing power in the agricultural sector: Commerce (GLOBAL), Finance (MTC, SAWAD), Automotive (SAT, STANLY) and Food & Agriculture (CPF and GFPT). | Daily Focus | CRC: Although 3Q23 profit is expected to fall YoY due to a slowdown in the retail business, profit will recover in 4Q23 to the year’s highest on seasonality, improving retail business and lower electricity price. The launch of “Go Wholesale”, a food wholesaler, is expected to have little impact on profit.
KTB: 3Q23 profit is expected to grow 22%YoY (higher NII) and 2%QoQ (higher NII, ECL and opex), while 2023 profit is expected to grow 22%YoY. The bank is seen to have the highest NIM growth and lower quality asset risk than other banks. | Today’s reports | CRC – Concern over a new format in the price |
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