ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily231123_T Range-bound at 1400-1430 |
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Market today | The SET is expected to move between 1400 and 1430 as there is no new catalyst to dictate market direction. US will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving. Supports are at 1410 and 1400, which are expected to stand, while resistances are at 1420 and 1430. | Today’s highlights | • The Prime Minister says Chinese airlines have requested cancelling flights to Thailand due to fewer Chinese tourists, which is attributed to domestic policies and the unfavourable economic situation in China. The Prime Minister noted that without the visa-free entry, the situation would be worse.
• The Ministry of Energy has requested cooperation from all oil traders to keep marketing margin on gasoline at Bt2/litre in an attempt to help the public. If they do not cooperate, the Ministry will work with the Ministry of Commerce to enforce marketing cost control laws, which would be seen as a negative for the oil retail group.
• The OPEC+ secretariat announced it has postponed the meeting to set oil production policy from Nov 25-26 to Nov 30, without specifying a reason.
• The EIA reported an increase in US crude oil inventory of 8.7mn bbl last week, much higher than the expected increase of 1.2mn bbl. Gasoline inventory increased by 749,000 bbl moving contrary to the expected decrease of 150,000 bbl.
• Initial jobless claims in US last week decreased to 209,000, the lowest level in five weeks and lower than the forecast of 225,000.
• The US Consumer Confidence Index in Nov stood at 61.3, the lowest in six months, and below the forecast level of 63.7. This is down from 63.8 in Oct.
• Egypt is preparing to resume LNG exports after a several-month suspension, as Israel is now supplying more gas. | Strategy today | The SET is expected to see a steady recovery, backed by positive sentiment from an expected Bt10bn in funds flowing into TESG by the end of the year. In addition, US manufacturing figures are expected to be strong although there is some indication of a slowdown. Our strategy is selective buy. | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: Although the Thai stock market is still facing high volatility, in the short term the SET may recover, though upside is limited. We recommend “selective buy” in themes with specific drivers:
1) Big-cap stocks in SET50 expected to be selected as investment targets for the TESG fund being set up for long-term stimulus. We select stocks in SETESG with factors of interest: 1) ESG Rating of “AAA” or “AA” and 2) prices have declined more than the SET YTD – SCGP, OR, CPALL, BEM, GULF, CRC and HMPRO
2) Earnings plays whose 4Q23 earnings are expected to grow YoY, making it the year’s best quarter – ERW, AOT and AP.
In the medium term we recommend being cautious on stocks that are expected to be affected by El Nino, which will erode purchasing power in the agricultural sector: Finance (MTC, SAWAD), Automotive (SAT, STANLY), Food & Agriculture (CPF GFPT and GFPT) and Beverages (CBG has high sugar cost). | Daily top picks | BCH: The stock has been outperforming the SET, supported by strong operating results. 4Q23 core profit is expected to be this year’s high, then growing 18% to Bt1.7bn in 2024, above the sector average. The stock has been put in the SETESG Index with an AA rating.
ADVANC: The stock has been included in the SETESG index with an AAA rating. Although 4Q23 core profit is expected to fall QoQ due to high season for SG&A cost, profit YoY is expected to grow from increasing revenue related to tourism. There is also a plus in lower TTTBB acquisition cost. | Today’s reports | BCH – Stronger operations, higher earnings | |
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