ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240325_T Upside still limited |
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Market today | The SET closed in on a significant resistance at 1400 and was unable to break through, while facing continuous sells and weaker technical signals, limiting the upper bound at resistances of 1390 and 1395; the lower bound is at supports of 1370 and 1360. | Today’s highlights | • The US Senate approved a draft budget bill worth US$1.2tn and sent it to Biden for signing, thereby avoiding a partial government shutdown.
• The Governor of the BoE said hopes for a reduction in interest rates this year is not unreasonable and said it was satisfied with indications that inflation is slowing down.
• The PM said he is making no cabinet reshuffles yet, especially the Minister of Finance. The Digital Wallet Project has been assigned to the Deputy Minister of Finance, with a new timeline to be announced.
• The Ministry of Finance is preparing to propose financial measures to state banks to reduce and stabilize interest rates, easing the cost of living. This signals that commercial banks may need to reduce interest rates for customers. A meeting is expected on Apr 10 to discuss policy rates in response to weak economic conditions.
• The Ministry of Digital Economy and Society unveiled its AI strategy to enhance digital transformation, establish a national AI board, strengthen digital infrastructure, and push for the first AI law focusing on ethics and attracting investment to ASEAN's hub.
• Today marks the first day when the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), mai, and TFEX will extend afternoon trading hours by 30 minutes, with pre-open from 13:30-14:00 and trading from 14:00-16:30. | Strategy today | In the short term, the Thai capital market is expected to recover after China’s economy gave signs of recovery in the manufacturing sector and investment, which might help Thailand’s manufacturing production index (MPI) rise after a fall of 2.9%YoY in Jan. The Fed signaled three interest rate cuts this year, as expected. The strategy is “Selective Buy”. | Trading today | In the short term the SET is expected to recover from better Chinese economic figures and Fed signals that it will relax monetary policy. We recommend “Selective Buy” in three main themes:
1) Speculative stocks after Brent price exceeded US$85/bbl, with demand supported by lower recession concerns and the effect on supply from Russian and Ukraine tension. For high risk-takers, we recommend trading PTTEP (long-term oil price up by US$1/bbl raises target price by Bt5/share) and TOP (refinery margin and inventory gain); the rise in price is negative to oil retail (low marketing margin) and aviation sector (higher cost).
2) Speculative stocks on the beginning of a downtrend in interest rate – finance (TIDLOR), utilities (GULF) and transportation (AOT).
3) Technically speculative stocks after prices have broken out of a downtrend and NVDR began to turn to a net buy in March – IVL, GULF, PTTGC and GPSC. | Daily top picks | GPSC: In the short term, it benefits from declining European natural gas price and US bond yield. It is believed to have passed the worst, with less pressure now from lower fuel cost giving higher profit, bringing 2024 core profit growth of 49%.
KCE: The company is the most outstanding in its sector, with profit expected to grow the highest in the sector. 2024 net profit is expected to grow by 32%, backed by strong growth in EV and better cost management. Valuation is interesting as it is trading at 2024 PE of 21.1x, which is equivalent to -1S.D. | Today’s reports | KTB (High conviction) – Gradual recovery, cheap valuation, low risk | | Click here to read and/or download file Daily240325_E |
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