กลุ่มธนาคาร – 3Q66: NIM ดี และตั้ง ECL ตามหลักความระมัดระวังมากขึ้น
กลุ่มปิโตรเคมี – ส่วนต่างราคายังคงปรับตัวลดลง
AP – พรีวิว 3Q66: คาดกำไรเพิ่มขึ้นทั้ง YoY และ QoQ
BCP – พรีวิว 3Q66: คาดกำไรพุ่งแรง
SCGP – 3Q66: กำไรตาม INVX และตลาดคาด Expected to rebound from oversold position |
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Market today | The SET has following points at supports of 1,383 and 1,375, where it will enter oversold territory, bringing a technical rebound. The upper bound is at 1,400, and a break above this would clarify a recovery with next resistance at 1,410. | Today’s highlights | • The cabinet approved guidelines to cut gasoline 91 price by Bt2.50/litre for three months. The details will be discussed on Oct 31, and it is expected to take effect immediately if approved.
• FTI reported vehicle exports in Sep of 97,476 units, down 2.90% YoY but up 11.30%MoM. It has cut its 2023 production target to 1.85mn units and export target to 0.8mn units.
• The Ministry of Commerce reported export growth in Sep of 2.1%YoY, the second month of growth, and expects solid growth in 4Q23 to help boost the whole year. Watch negative factors such as oil price and the war.
• US composite PMI in Oct was 51.0, reaching a 3-month high, while composite PMI in Eurozone, Germany and the UK fell below 50, indicating business contraction. Germany and UK PMIs have contracted for 4 and 3 months, respectively.
• Attorney-Generals in 42 states in the US have filed a lawsuit against Meta alleging that Facebook and Instagram are designed to be addictive to children.
• Microsoft reported a beat in 1QFY24 profit, especially in the cloud business. Alphabet reported 3Q23 profit growth in all areas. | Strategy today | In the short term the SET is expected to able to recover and rebound, but upside is limited as the market is keeping an eye on the situation in the Middle East to see if the conflict will spread to Iran, as well as concerns over inflation and bond yields that may cause volatility. At home, keep an eye on whether the number of foreign tourists entering Thailand shows any deterioration after the shooting at the beginning of the month and for clarification of the digital wallet. Our strategy is selective buy. | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: This week the SET is expected to have some recovery or rebound, but the upside is limited as there are risks, both domestic and external. We recommend “selective buy” in themes with specific drivers:
1) Speculative stocks expected to benefit from oil price if it rises or stays at this already high level in view of concerns that tension in the Middle East will affect oil supply – BCP, PTTEP and TOP.
2) Undervalued stocks whose prices have fallen into the oversold zone, with strong fundamentals and inexpensive valuation (PER and PBV 2023F below 5-year average) – BDMS, CPALL, CPN and MINT.
3) Stocks whose profit is expected to be good through 4Q23 (+YoY and +QoQ) – AP, AOT, BLA, BCH, CENTEL and KCE, which has already passed bottom (+QoQ).
In the medium term we recommend being cautious on stocks that are expected to be affected by El Nino, which will erode purchasing power in the agricultural sector: Commerce (GLOBAL), Finance (MTC, SAWAD), Automotive (SAT, STANLY), Food & Agriculture (CPF and GFPT) and Beverages (CBG has high sugar cost). | Daily top picks | GPSC: In the short term stock price will benefit from a fall in gas prices in Europe and in bond yield, while 2H23 profit is expected to improve HoH as lower fuel cost will compensate for lower Ft and it will book higher profit from the renewable business.
AOT: The company benefits from the entry into tourism high season as more tourists mean more profit (+YoY and QoQ) om 4QFY23-1QFY24. In the short term the stock price has already incorporated the negatives, and price performance YTD lags other stocks in the tourism sector. | Today’s reports | Bank – 3Q23: Good NIM with more cautious ECLs
Petrochemicals – Spreads still heading south
AP – Preview 3Q23: Up both YoY and QoQ
BCP – Preview 3Q23F: Profit surge expected
SCGP – 3Q23: In line with all estimates |
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