ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240228_T Expect a recovery around 1380-1387 |
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Market today | The SET was unable to break through 1400 and fell back, moving sideways between 1380-1400, falling near the lower support bound at 1387 and 1380, which are recovery points; resistance is at 1400-1405. | Today’s highlights | • In Feb, the Consumer Confidence Index in the US fell to 106.7 from 110.9 in Jan, below the expected 115.0, reflecting concerns in the labor market and political factors. Durable goods orders in Jan saw the largest decline since Apr 2020 at 6.1%, worse than expected.
• Jeffery Schmid, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, emphasized the Fed's attention to high-level inflation risks and a cautious approach towards reducing bond purchases. This sentiment aligns with remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman, Michael Bowman, who said the Fed will not rush to reduce bond purchases, considering inflation risks.
• Russia has approved a six-month ban on gasoline exports starting from Mar 1 to stabilize oil prices amidst increasing demand from consumers and farmers. This decision also allows for refinery maintenance.
• Apple has cancelled its electric car project, redirecting some employees to work on artificial intelligence projects.
• The Ministry of Energy intends to maintain electricity rates from May to Aug 2024 at the same level as Jan to Apr, at Bt4.18 per unit. Behind this is PTTEP's ability to recover a significant amount of natural gas from the Gulf of Thailand starting from Apr.
• The SEC expects to implement measures to control short selling and trading programs in 2Q24. These measures include auction circuit-breaker, auto halt and amendments to securities laws to address naked short selling. | Strategy today | In the short term, the Thai capital market remains range-bound, though there may be some support from strong US economic figures, recovery in China’s economy, less pressure from short-selling and a return of fund flows. Domestically, the market is entering the last phase of 4Q23 earnings releases, which are expected to be weak. The strategy is “Selective Buy”. | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: In the short term the SET is expected to be range-bound as we enter the final days of 4Q23 earnings reports, but fund flows are expected to support the investment climate. We recommend “Selective Buy” in three main themes:
1) Stocks that benefit from the steady recovery of tourism with more foreign tourists, but which is not yet reflected in stock prices – AOT and MINT.
2) Speculative stocks if the SET can get above 1400, where buybacks are expected to cover short positions plus a return of fund flows, in stocks where fundamentals remain strong – AOT, KBANK, KTB and PTT.
3) Long-term investors are recommended to invest via DCA accumulation as now would be good timing since the SET has fallen significantly, risk is low and stocks are undervalued – BBL, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, PTT and SCC, all of which are in SET100 and are leaders in their industries with ESG ratings of AAA and AA, valuation lower than 10-year historical average and strong operating results. | Daily top picks | TOP: 1Q24 profit is expected to improve QoQ on a recovery in GRM from higher gasoline and fuel oil crack spreads and lower stock loss. The present stock price reflects PBV of 0.7x (-1.4S.D.) slightly higher than pre-COVID at 0.5x.
BDMS: 1Q24 profit is expected to continue growing YoY and QoQ, with 2024 core profit growing 8% to Bt15bn, supported by revenue growth of 6% and higher EBITDA margin. Valuation is not seen as expensive, currently trading at 2024 PER of 29x, below -2S.D. of historical PER. | Today’s reports | Petrochemicals – Lower naphtha cost lifts product spread
HMPRO – 4Q23: In line with market estimates | | Click here to read and/or download file Daily240228_E |
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