กลุ่มธนาคาร – BBL นำร่องปรับขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ย; NIM มี upside
กลุ่มวัสดุก่อสร้าง – เผชิญแรงกดดันระยะสั้นจากต้นทุนพลังงานที่สูงขึ้น Still weakening, staggering recovery |
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Market today | Indicators are still negative and the SET continues to sink. It does not yet have a turning point, only a short-lived rise when it hits oversold. Technically, next supports are at 1,475 and 1,462, while recovery is limited at resistances of 1,496 and a following point of 1,508. A break up would be a good sign. | Today’s highlights | • The Minister of Labour said the rise in minimum wage will be a New Year’s gift but did not confirm it would go up to Bt400/day as discussed, based on inflation and the specific province. This is expected to be finalized by the end of November.
• The MRTA board approved a cut in the Purple Line fare as of Dec 1 to make it the same as the Red Line’s Bt20. It expects a loss of Bt190mn/year and will continue to negotiate with BEM.
• BBL raised its deposit and loan rates, effective today, and expects the economy to grow sustainably in the long term.
• US 2Q23 GDP grew by 2.1%, unchanged from the earlier announcement but lower than the preliminary 2.4%. Initial jobless claims increased by 240k last week, lower than expected.
• Germany CPI in Sep was 4.3%, lower than the 4.5% expected and below August’s 6.4%.
• China says there will be no special quota for exports of clean oil products or crude oil imports for the rest of this year, meaning its fuel exports are likely to decline in 4Q23.
• The strike by the United Auto Workers in Detroit is showing signs of a compromise as the demand for a 40% wage raise over 4 years has moderated to a minimum of 30%.
• Nestle says global food & beverage sales volume is likely to decline this year, emphasising the challenge the F&B sector will be facing. | Strategy today | Even though the SET has been moving down since entering September due to concerns about debt creation, uncertainties over the government’s digital wallet policy, baht weakening and fund outflows, as we enter the final week of September – and of 3Q23 – we see the market as already at bottom and expect recovery to start In October due to clearer policies in China and economic recovery. Our strategy is to take this as an opportunity to invest. | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: The market is entering the last week in September, also the end of 3Q23, which is expected to be its bottom, with recovery starting in October. We see as an opportunity to invest in themes with specific drivers:
1) Speculative stocks whose prices are expected to rebound after underperforming the SET and whose valuations are inexpensive (2023F PER and PBV lower than 5-year average) – CPALL, HMPRO, CPN, BDMS, MINT.
2) Speculative stocks in the petrodollar theme that benefit from higher purchasing power in the Middle East as oil price has risen by 10% QoQ in 3Q23 – BH (more patients from the Middle East), PTTEP (rising oil price) and BCP (rising oil price and inventory gains).
3) Stocks for investment whose 3Q23 profit is expected to grow with good momentum continuing in 4Q23 – BCH, HANA, KCE, AOT and ERW.
In the medium term we recommend being cautious on stocks that are expected to be affected by El Nino, which will erode purchasing power in the agricultural sector: Commerce (GLOBAL), Finance (MTC, SAWAD), Automotive (SAT, STANLY) and Food & Agriculture (CPF and GFPT). | Daily top picks | BBL: Profit will grow the strongest in its sector, backed by the largest expansion in NIM on the plus from higher interest rate, now up another 25bps. It raised its fixed deposit rate by 20-25bps and kept savings rate flat, giving an 8bps upside to margin.
HANA: 2H23 profit is expected to grow HoH upon recovery in IC products, as the industry enters high season when smart phone makers introduce new models. It will also benefit from use of RFID instead of barcodes in the retail sector. | Today’s reports | Bank – BBL leads interest rate hike, upside to NIM
Construction Materials – Short-term pressure from higher energy cost |
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