ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240531_TRecovery still limited
Market todayThe SET recovered from support of 1340, but negative sentiment from US stock markets after second estimate of 1Q24 US GDP failed to meet expectations and the wait for US PCE will limit recovery to resistance between 1355-1360; support is at 1340. A fall below this is a bad sign.Today’s highlights• 1Q24 US GDP (second estimate) expanded by 1.3%, lower than the initial estimate of 1.6%, hurt by slowing consumer spending. Initial jobless claims rose to 219,000 last week, higher than market expectations.
• WTI oil prices fell 1.67% yesterday after the EIA reported larger-than-expected increases in gasoline and distillate inventories, indicating slowing fuel demand.
• Former President Donald Trump was found guilty for falsifying documents related to hush money payments before the 2016 presidential election. This blurs US politics.
• Some regional authorities in China advised companies to slow down purchases of foreign currencies, indicating China is about to take additional measures to prevent capital outflows amid a weakening yuan.
• China exported a record amount of soybean meal as a reduction in swine numbers and weak pork demand led processors to export surplus feed to other countries.
• Salesforce Inc fell 19.7% yesterday after reporting a miss in 1Q24 revenue and lower 2Q24 revenue guidance than expected, as customers spent on its cloud products.
• The Energy Policy Administration Committee decided to maintain the diesel price subsidy at Bt1.40/litre to preserve Oil Fund liquidity. This will raise retail diesel price by another Bt0.50/litre to Bt32.94/litre, effective May 31.Strategy today In the short term the SET is range-bound, with nothing to influence direction. The first economic cabinet meeting ended with no new stimulus. Economic data is expected to slow down. Externally, follow US April PCE, which is expected to already be in the market, and China manufacturing April PMI, which is expected to improve after a steady influx of stimulus. 1Q24 profit globally was still good; although growth was small in Thai companies, 2Q24 is expected to be better, giving support to the SET from 3Q24. Our strategy is “Selective Buy”.Trading todayThe Thai capital market is expected to be range-bound with no new factor to influence. However, 2Q24 profit is expected to improve for many companies, which will support the SET. We recommend “Selective Buy” with three main themes:
1) Stocks expected to benefit from a recovery in manufacturing, especially in China, whose profits have passed bottom but whose stock price has yet to reflect the good picture – KCE, SCGP and PTTGC.
2) Stocks whose 2Q24 net profit is expected to grow YoY and QoQ, with attractive valuations– MINT, ADVANC, TU, BEM, CPF, BTG, OSP and TIDLOR.
3) The easing of tension in the Middle East, has led Brent down to the lower bound of US$80-90/bbl, which is seen as an opportunity to hedge. For high risk takers, we recommend an upstream oil stock – PTTEP. Follow the OPEC+ online conference on June 2 regarding oil production policy.Daily top picksSCGP: The company benefits from recovery of manufacturing, especially in China. Although 2Q24 profit is expected to weaken QoQ due to seasonal factors, profit is expected to grow in 2Q24, supported by higher prices and demand for paper packaging. 2024 core profit is expected to turn around to grow 27.6% to Bt6.6bn.
GPSC: The lower US bond yield is sentimentally positive. We believe its year worst is past and profit will come back gradually as natural gas cost comes down. We forecast 2Q24 core profit growth both YoY and QoQ from lower fuel cost and higher profit share from Avaada and CFXD.Today’s reportsResidential Property – Looking for a better 2Q24F
ACE – Appetite for green players remains low Click here to read and/or download file Daily240531_E |
