Continue upward trend

The SET is expected to edge up, though its upward momentum may slow. Meanwhile, crude oil prices moved higher following news that Iran threatened energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf if the US launches an attack, alongside a new wave of attacks by Houthi forces on Saudi Aramco oil refineries. This is expected to benefit upstream energy plays. Key events to track today include public hearings for the draft Power Development Plan (PDP2026) and the second day of the parliamentary debate on the Budget Bill. Technically, the index breaking above 1,600 points presents an improved technical signal, though short-term pullbacks are possible.

Today's highlight
• Thailand's headline inflation rose 2.53% YoY in August 2026, reaching its highest level in three months, driven by persistently high oil prices and broad-based increases in food costs. The Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) expects September inflation to remain positive on energy prices, pressuring domestic purchasing power. Near-term negative for retail (CPALL, CRC, BJC) and consumer finance (MTC, SAWAD, TIDLOR).

• Bloomberg reports that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is in talks to acquire a stake in PTT-affiliated refineries, alongside crude supply contracts and petroleum product off-take quotas, with a conclusion expected by year-end. Positive for PTT-group refiners (PTT, TOP, IRPC).

• The Tourism Minister revealed the tourism stimulus scheme is expected to gain clarity by Sep 8. The ministry proposed allocating Bt4bn from emergency loan funds for 1 million privileges, comprising room discounts up to Bt3,000 and travel vouchers of Bt1,000 (up from Bt500), extended to spa and wellness services. Cabinet submission is expected next week, with registration opening October 1. Positive for tourism (CENTEL, ERW, MINT, SPA).

• Track public hearings for PDP2026 today, featuring four options ranging from continued gas reliance alongside clean energy to pushing clean energy share to 80% with BESS and SMR. Initial positive sentiment for power producers (GULF, GPSC, BGRIM, GUNKUL, WHAUP).

• Crude palm oil prices rose to 4,689 ringgit/ton, reacting to wildfires in Indonesia that reflect dry conditions, disrupting harvesting and impacting palm grow

Strategy today
In the near term, the SET is expected to swing volatilely following pressure from rising energy prices and bond yields, triggering market concerns the Fed may consider rate hikes to combat inflation, along with multiple large-cap stocks going ex-dividend in Thailand. However, key factors to monitor will impact the investment atmosphere, particularly US inflation (Sep 11) which will signal rate direction before the FOMC meeting (Sep 15-16), FY2027 budget bill consideration (Sep 7-9) which will help build investment confidence, and the PDP2026 draft hearing opening (Sep 8) which will benefit the clean energy sector. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy".

Trading today
The SET is expected to swing volatilely, pressured by concerns the Fed may consider rate hikes and multiple large-cap stocks going ex-dividend in Thailand, while key factors to monitor include US inflation reports, FY2027 budget bill consideration, and PDP2026 draft hearing opening. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy" across 4 trading themes with specific positive factors as follows:

1. Policy and Domestic Play — Benefiting from accelerated government economic policy implementation: Clean energy and industrial estate stocks (GULF, GPSC, BGRIM, GUNKUL, WHAUP, AMATA, WHA) expected to benefit from PDP2026 progress and Solar Rooftop installation subsidies, contractors and construction materials (STECON, CK, SCC, SCCC) benefiting from accelerated government spending before fiscal year-end and FY2027 budget expectations, and retail and tourism stocks (CPALL, CRC, CPN, ERW, CENTEL, AOT) benefiting from Thai Tourism Plus measures.

2. Global Macro & Bond Yield Play — Benefiting from renewed geopolitical tensions pushing energy prices and shipping rates higher, supporting energy (PTTEP, BCP, TOP) and shipping stocks (PSL, TTA), while inflation concerns supporting high bond yields positively impacting bank returns (KTB, BBL, KBANK) and life insurance stocks (BLA, TLI).

3. Laggard Play — Stocks with slower price appreciation than the SET but expected strong 2H26 earnings growth both YoY and HoH, making them targets for fund rotation and speculation: AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC, TIDLOR.

4. High Dividend Play — To create consistent cash flow into portfolios, focusing on interim dividend payments with expected Div. Interim Yield >2%: HMPRO, KKP, HTC, TOP, PTT.

Daily Top Picks
ERW: Supported by progress on "Thai Thiew Thai Plus," which is expected to be submitted to the Cabinet next week. RevPAR grew 8% YoY in July 2026, with momentum anticipated to carry through 4Q26 on seasonality and global events hosted in Thailand. Valuation remains attractive, with 2026 PE near its historical average of 19x. Short-term TP is Bt3.90.

TOP: Near-term positive sentiment on news that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) in the UAE is in talks to acquire a stake in PTT-affiliated refineries. Refining margins are expected to stay elevated on persistent supply disruptions and widespread refinery damage across several regions, while diesel spreads hit a 4-month high. Short-term TP is Bt65.50.