The SET is expected to trade lower as the market remains in a risk-off mode, pressured by surging crude oil prices on tight supply concerns and rising US Treasury yields driven by expectations of a potential Fed rate hike next week. However, stocks with specific catalysts—particularly upstream energy, refiners, petrochemicals, banking, and insurance—are expected to help support the market. Domestically, focus turns to the release of US August CPI data tonight. Technically, the index is pulling back; a drop below the 1,600 level would signal a weakening technical outlook.
Markets
Watch US CPI tonight
Today's highlights
• Brent surged 6.3% to touch US$107.63/bbl after Iran escalated attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, while advisors to President Trump warned the Iran conflict could persist throughout the remainder of his term. Meanwhile, OPEC’s August production fell by 640,000 bpd to 19.71mn bpd due to naval blockades. Short-term positive for energy plays (PTTEP, TOP, SPRC, BCP).
• Watch US Aug CPI today, following PPI release, which grew 0.4% MoM, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures. Markets have raised the probability of a Fed rate hike at next week’s meeting to 70%, driving the 10-year US Treasury yield up to 4.92%. Short-term positive for banks (KTB, BBL, KBANK) and insurance (TLI, BLA).
• The House of Representatives passed the FY2027 Budget Bill in its third reading with a vote of 338 to 144, maintaining a total budget of Bt3.788tn. The bill will be urgently forwarded to the Senate for consideration on Sep 11, boosting confidence in public disbursement and new project auctions. Positive for contractors and building materials (STECON, CK, SCC, SCCC).
• The Finance Minister is preparing to consider extending the “Half-half Plus” for another 1–2 months while adjusting the co-pay structure to stimulate purchasing power and ease living costs amid volatile global oil prices. Clarity is expected by Sep. Positive for retail (CPALL, CPAXT, CRC) and finance (TIDLOR, SAWAD, MTC).
• The EV Board approved a new three-tier EV tax structure: 1) lowest rate for local production with domestic parts; 2) medium rate for test-market imports or new investments; and 3) highest rate for pure importers. Set for Cabinet submission in September, this is long-term positive for industrial estates (WHA, AMATA) and automotive suppliers (AH, SAT, STANLY).
Strategy today
In the near term, the SET is expected to swing volatilely following pressure from rising energy prices and bond yields, triggering market concerns the Fed may consider rate hikes to combat inflation, along with multiple large-cap stocks going ex-dividend in Thailand. However, key factors to monitor will impact the investment atmosphere, particularly US inflation (Sep 11) which will signal rate direction before the FOMC meeting (Sep 15-16), FY2027 budget bill consideration (Sep 7-9) which will help build investment confidence, and the PDP2026 draft hearing opening (Sep 8) which will benefit the clean energy sector. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy".
Trading today
The SET is expected to swing volatilely, pressured by concerns the Fed may consider rate hikes and multiple large-cap stocks going ex-dividend in Thailand, while key factors to monitor include US inflation reports, FY2027 budget bill consideration, and PDP2026 draft hearing opening. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy" across 3 trading themes with specific positive factors as follows:
1. Policy and Domestic Play — Benefiting from accelerated government economic policy implementation: Clean energy and industrial estate stocks (GULF, GPSC, BGRIM, GUNKUL, WHAUP, AMATA, WHA) expected to benefit from PDP2026 progress and Solar Rooftop installation subsidies, contractors and construction materials (STECON, CK, SCC, SCCC) benefiting from accelerated government spending before fiscal year-end and FY2027 budget expectations, and retail and tourism stocks (CPALL, CRC, CPN, ERW, CENTEL, AOT) benefiting from Thai Tourism Plus measures.
2. Global Macro & Bond Yield Play — Benefiting from renewed geopolitical tensions pushing energy prices and shipping rates higher, supporting energy (PTTEP, BCP, TOP) and shipping stocks (PSL, TTA), while inflation concerns supporting high bond yields positively impacting bank returns (KTB, BBL, KBANK) and life insurance stocks (BLA, TLI).
3. Laggard Play — Stocks with slower price appreciation than the SET but expected strong 2H26 earnings growth both YoY and HoH, making them targets for fund rotation and speculation: AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC, TIDLOR.
Daily Top Picks
BCH: Viewed as a defensive play expected to face limited impact from external uncertainties. Revenue shows signs of recovery in 2H26, accelerating from 2Q26, with earnings anticipated to recover clearly in 2027F driven by a rebound in patient volumes. In 4Q26, potential upside is expected from an upward adjustment in Social Security service fee rates. Short-term TP is Bt11.30.
TLI: Supported by short-term catalysts as government bond yields hit new highs, boosting investment income. 2026F net profit is expected to grow 11.8% YoY, driven by higher net investment income. Valuation remains attractive at a 2026F PER of 9.8x, alongside a standout dividend yield of 6.1%. Short-term TP is Bt12.00.