The SET is expected to move sideways. Domestically, the market has partially priced in the limited impact of the Senate collusion case. Externally, investors remain cautious ahead of the first day of the Fed meeting and amidst ongoing Middle East tensions, with high bond yields and oil prices further dampening sentiment. Stock-selective strategies are expected to continue, focusing on individual picks with positive catalysts alongside laggard plays that underperformed recently. Today, monitor the first day of the Fed meeting. Technically, the index broke below 1600, signaling a return to a sideways-down trend.
Markets
Sideways, follow FOMC meeting
Today's highlights
• The 10-year US Treasury yield reached 5% for the first time in nearly 3 years, driven by persistent monetary tightening concerns amid elevated inflation risks. Short-term positive sentiment for life insurance (BLA, TLI) and banking plays (KTB, BBL, KBANK).
• The Finance Permanent Secretary disclosed plans to submit the extension of the “Half-half Plus” scheme to the screening committee this week before Cabinet consideration. The scheme is estimated to utilize ~Bt40bn/month from the Bt400bn Emergency Loan Decree, boosting domestic purchasing power and sustaining grassroots economic momentum. Positive for commerce (CPALL, CPAXT, BJC).
• The OFFO resolved to increase retail gasoline and diesel prices by Bt0.85/litre to preserve the fund's liquidity following rising global crude prices. This pushed retail diesel prices to a new high of Bt40.69/litre. Neutral impact on oil retail operators as marketing margins remain unaffected, though high prices may curb fuel consumption volumes over the medium term.
• Foreign tourist arrivals totaled 493,069, continuing a gradual slowdown. However, arrivals are projected to rebound from mid-September 2026, supported by short-haul travel demand ahead of major holiday periods, particularly China's Golden Week (Oct 1–7). Positive for tourism (ERW, CENTEL, AOT).
• The Election Commission (EC) voted to petition the Supreme Court and file criminal charges against 77 individuals over alleged collusion in the Senate selection process. Given that the accused sitting senators do not hold executive political positions, the overall impact on government policy execution remains limited, with the market likely having partially priced in the risk.
Strategy today
In the near term, we expect the SET to move sideways. While the index draws support from the energy sector on the back of rising crude oil prices amid geopolitical tensions, the market continues to face uncertainty from key factors to monitor — including the Fed meeting (Sep 15–16) with Dot Plot and the BOJ meeting (Sep 18) for signals on policy rate direction and implications for yen carry trade, both of which will have a direct bearing on global fund flows, as well as the domestic political front where the Election Commission is set to vote on Sep 14 on whether to refer the Senate election collusion case to the Supreme Court. The investment strategy is therefore "Selective Buy" with an emphasis on "Buy on Dip" opportunities.
Trading today
The SET is expected to move sideways. While Energy provides some support on the back of rising oil prices, the market continues to face uncertainty from the FOMC and BOJ meetings on interest rate direction and yen carry trade implications, and political developments surrounding the ruling on the Senate election collusion case. Our investment strategy is therefore "Selective Buy" with an emphasis on "Buy on Dip" across 4 trading ideas with specific positives as follows:
1. Defensive & high dividend plays — Stocks expected to deliver a consistently high Div. Yield of above 5% p.a., providing steady cash flow and a safe haven amid market volatility ahead of the Fed meeting and domestic political developments: BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC, PTT, FTREIT, LHSC.
2. Global macro & bond yield plays — Stocks benefiting from geopolitical tensions driving up energy prices and freight rates, supporting the energy sector (PTTEP, BCP, TOP, SPRC) and shipping (PSL, TTA); with elevated bond yields also providing a tailwind for investment returns in banking (KTB, BBL, KBANK) and life insurance (BLA, TLI).
3. Policy plays — Stocks positioned to benefit from government economic policy initiatives: clean energy and industrial estates (GULF, GUNKUL, AMATA, WHA) on progress in drafting the PDP2026 plan and solar rooftop installation support; contractors and construction materials (STECON, CK, SCCC) on accelerated budget disbursement and the anticipated passage of the FY2027 Budget Bill; retail and tourism (CPALL, CRC, ERW, CENTEL, AOT) on the Thai Teaw Thai Plus measures; and electronics (DELTA, HANA, KCE) on investment promotion policies for data centers and AI.
4. Laggard plays — Stocks whose share prices have lagged the broader SET despite 2H26 earnings momentum expected to deliver solid YoY and HoH growth, making them likely targets for speculative rotation: AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC, TIDLOR.
Daily Top Picks
CENTEL: Supported by a recovery in the tourism sector as long holidays approach in several countries, extending into 4Q26 high season and national events. Clarity surrounding the tourism stimulus scheme signals that earnings have passed their trough for the year, with core profit expected to continuously recover through 1Q27. Short-term TP is Bt44.50.
TLI: Short-term catalyst from government bond yields reaching new highs, supporting investment income. 2026F net profit is projected to grow 11.8% YoY driven by higher net investment income. Valuation is attractive at a 2026F PER of 9.8x alongside an appealing dividend yield of 6.1%. Short-term TP is Bt11.90.