Watch FOMC meeting tonight

The SET is expected to trade volatile. The market remains in a cautious stance awaiting clarity following tonight's Fed meeting. Elevated bond yields and rising crude oil prices continue to pressure risk assets, alongside ongoing high domestic political heat. Nevertheless, as the market is viewed to have largely priced in these pressures, buy-on-dip opportunities may emerge in stocks with positive catalysts and laggard plays that underperformed recently. Technically, the index has pulled back to test its 75-day moving average once again, signaling a key decision point; holding above this level could prompt a short-term rebound.

Today's highlights
• Watch the Fed monetary policy decision and Dot Plot projections. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 94.5% probability of a 25 bps interest rate hike to curb surging oil-driven inflation. This pushed the 10-year US Treasury yield up to 5.041%, hitting 19-year high and pressuring risk assets. Short-term positive for banking (BBL, KTB, KBANK) and insurance (BLA, TLI).

• Brent crude oil prices rose 2.9% DoD to close at US$108.75/bbl after Saudi Arabia suspended oil loadings at the Yanbu port and canceled cargo deliveries to European clients, reflecting tight supply conditions that could linger for several weeks. Short-term positive for energy plays (PTTEP, TOP, SPRC, BCP).

• The Commerce Minister disclosed plans to extend the "Half-half Plus" scheme to ease living costs and stimulate the economy amid rising geopolitical risks from the Strait of Hormuz closure and elevated oil prices. Additional supplementary measures will be introduced, as the situation may prove more severe than previously anticipated. Positive for retail (CPALL, CPAXT, BJC).

• The Cabinet approved the National Disaster Insurance scheme, taking effect Oct 1 and covering ~30 million households against three hazards: floods, windstorms, and earthquakes, with maximum coverage of Bt100,000 per household. Positive for insurance (THRE, TIPH).

• The Commerce Minister provided an update on trade talks between Team Thailand and the US, stating an agreement in principle has been reached ahead of the bilateral summit on September 17–18. The final negotiation framework and relief measures will be submitted to the Cabinet and Parliament for acknowledgment. Positive for food exporters (TU, ITC).

Strategy today
In the near term, we expect the SET to move sideways. While the index draws support from the energy sector on the back of rising crude oil prices amid geopolitical tensions, the market continues to face uncertainty from key factors to monitor — including the Fed meeting (Sep 15–16) with Dot Plot and the BOJ meeting (Sep 18) for signals on policy rate direction and implications for yen carry trade, both of which will have a direct bearing on global fund flows, as well as the domestic political front where the Election Commission is set to vote on Sep 14 on whether to refer the Senate election collusion case to the Supreme Court. The investment strategy is therefore "Selective Buy" with an emphasis on "Buy on Dip" opportunities.

Trading today
The SET is expected to move sideways. While Energy provides some support on the back of rising oil prices, the market continues to face uncertainty from the FOMC and BOJ meetings on interest rate direction and yen carry trade implications, and political developments surrounding the ruling on the Senate election collusion case. Our investment strategy is therefore "Selective Buy" with an emphasis on "Buy on Dip" across 4 trading ideas with specific positives as follows:

1. Defensive & high dividend plays — Stocks expected to deliver a consistently high Div. Yield of above 5% p.a., providing steady cash flow and a safe haven amid market volatility ahead of the Fed meeting and domestic political developments: BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC, PTT, FTREIT, LHSC.

2. Global macro & bond yield plays — Stocks benefiting from geopolitical tensions driving up energy prices and freight rates, supporting the energy sector (PTTEP, BCP, TOP, SPRC) and shipping (PSL, TTA); with elevated bond yields also providing a tailwind for investment returns in banking (KTB, BBL, KBANK) and life insurance (BLA, TLI).

3. Policy plays — Stocks positioned to benefit from government economic policy initiatives: clean energy and industrial estates (GULF, GUNKUL, AMATA, WHA) on progress in drafting the PDP2026 plan and solar rooftop installation support; contractors and construction materials (STECON, CK, SCCC) on accelerated budget disbursement and the anticipated passage of the FY2027 Budget Bill; retail and tourism (CPALL, CRC, ERW, CENTEL, AOT) on the Thai Teaw Thai Plus measures; and electronics (DELTA, HANA, KCE) on investment promotion policies for data centers and AI.

4. Laggard plays — Stocks whose share prices have lagged the broader SET despite 2H26 earnings momentum expected to deliver solid YoY and HoH growth, making them likely targets for speculative rotation: AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC, TIDLOR.

Daily Top Picks
ERW: RevPAR is estimated to rise 8% YoY during July–August 2026, beating the company's target. 3Q26 core profit is expected to accelerate before peaking in 4Q26, driven by the tourism high season, China's Golden Week, major global events in October, and the rollout of tourism stimulus scheme in November. Short-term TP is Bt3.94.

KTB: Supported by concerns over monetary policy tightening and potential policy rate hikes. Loans are expected to continue growing, with earnings upside from FVTPL gains related to THAI. 2026F net profit is projected to grow 1% YoY, with dividend remaining high at Bt2.77/share (6.4% dividend yield). Short-term TP is Bt45.25.