The SET is expected to move sideways-up as easing crude oil prices and falling US Treasury yields help trigger a recovery in risk assets. Sector rotation is expected to shift from upstream energy plays toward anti-oil stocks, while electronics should rise to support the index. However, monitor today's BoJ meeting, as a rate hike in line with market expectations could impact future fund flows, while FTSE Rebalancing effective today may induce late-session volatility. Technically, the index is recovering, though failing to clear 1600 would suggest a short-term rebound.
Markets
SET to edge higher, headwinds ease
Today's highlights
• Brent fell 0.95% DoD following supply disruption relief as Saudi Arabia reportedly increased crude shipments to Asian refiners via Oman, while the EIA reported a smaller-than-expected crude stock draw last week. Meanwhile, Reuters reported China contacted Iran to exercise influence over Houthis regarding attacks on Saudi vessels in the Red Sea. Short-term positive for anti-oil stocks (THAI, BA, GPSC, BGRIM), but negative for upstream energy (PTTEP).
• The BoE voted 6-3 to hold policy rate at 3.75%. Although inflation remains above the 2% target, it signaled readiness to hike rates if energy prices rise, reflecting global monetary policy tightening risks. Meanwhile, market focus today shifts to the BoJ meeting, which will impact Yen Carry Trade dynamics and global fund flows. Neutral to negative for rate-sensitive and highly-indebted plays.
• The Finance Minister reaffirmed extending Phase 2 of the "Half-half Plus" scheme into Oct–Nov 2026 under a 60/40 co-pay model, funded by the remaining portion of the Bt400bn Emergency Loan Decree. The proposal will be submitted to the Cabinet on Sep 22. Positive for retail (CPALL, CPAXT, BJC).
• The PM disclosed trade negotiations between Thailand and the US are nearing a positive conclusion, with Thailand preparing to request trade privileges following compliance regarding the Cambodian conflict. Positive for food exporters, boosted by a weaker baht (TU, ITC).
• The Ministry of Finance, SET, and SEC signed an MOU launching the "BOI to IPO" project to attract New Economy businesses via tax deductions and streamlined IPO processes. Long-term positive for industrial estates (AMATA, WHA) and investment banking (KKP).
Strategy today
In the near term, we expect the SET to trade sideways. While the index draws support from the energy sector on the back of rising crude oil prices amid geopolitical tensions, the market continues to face macroeconomic uncertainty following the FOMC's decision to raise the policy rate by 25bps and a clearly hawkish Dot Plot signaling a further possible rate hike before year-end — reinforcing the tighter monetary policy outlook. The BOJ meeting outcome (Sep 18) also warrants close attention for its implications on yen carry trade and the resulting impact on global fund flows. The investment strategy is therefore "Selective Buy" with an emphasis on "Buy on Dip" opportunities.
Trading today
The SET is expected to move sideways. While Energy provides support on the back of rising oil prices, the market continues to face headwinds following the Fed's 25bps rate hike and a Dot Plot signaling another hike this year, with the BOJ meeting outcome also requiring monitoring for its implications on yen carry trade and global fund flows. Our investment strategy is "Selective Buy" with an emphasis on "Buy on Dip" across 4 trading ideas with specific positives as follows:
1. Defensive & high dividend plays — Stocks expected to deliver a consistently high Div. Yield of above 5% p.a., providing steady cash flow and a safe haven amid market volatility ahead of the Fed meeting and domestic political developments: BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC, PTT, FTREIT, LHSC.
2. Global macro & bond yield plays — Stocks benefiting from geopolitical tensions driving up energy prices and freight rates, supporting the energy sector (PTTEP, BCP, TOP, SPRC) and shipping (PSL, TTA); with elevated bond yields also providing a tailwind for investment returns in banking (KTB, BBL, KBANK) and life insurance (BLA, TLI).
3. Policy plays — Stocks positioned to benefit from government economic policy initiatives: clean energy and industrial estates (GULF, GUNKUL, AMATA, WHA) on progress in drafting the PDP2026 plan and solar rooftop installation support; contractors and construction materials (STECON, CK, SCCC) on accelerated budget disbursement and the anticipated passage of the FY2027 Budget Bill; retail and tourism (CPALL, CRC, ERW, CENTEL, AOT) on the Thai Teaw Thai Plus measures; and electronics (DELTA, HANA, KCE) on investment promotion policies for data centers and AI.
4. Laggard plays — Stocks whose share prices have lagged the broader SET despite 2H26 earnings momentum expected to deliver solid YoY and HoH growth, making them likely targets for speculative rotation: AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC, TIDLOR.
Daily Top Picks
AMATA: Short-term catalyst from the "BOI to IPO" initiative aimed at attracting New Economy investments to Thailand. Additionally, a major Chinese enterprise is set to invest over Bt3.1bn to establish a production base in Chonburi. 2026 land sales are projected at 2,800 rai, with approximately 40–50% of the backlog expected to be recognized as revenue in 2H26. 2026 profit is forecasted at Bt4.7bn, representing a 50% growth. Short-term TP is Bt33.75.
BGRIM: Short-term catalysts from lower fuel costs and declining government bond yields. Growth opportunities remain intact through capacity expansion under PDP2026 and Direct PPA, energy management and distribution on EPaaS, as well as long-term feasibility studies on SMR with partners. Short-term TP is Bt19.30.