Short-term rebound, watch fund flow

Today's highlights
• Brent crude prices fell 2.56% DoD to US$96/bbl following reports of increased oil shipments through Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, with crude transport resuming via the Yanbu port on the Red Sea. Short-term negative for upstream energy (PTTEP), but positive for anti-oil plays (GPSC, BGRIM, AAV, BA).

• The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.28%, its highest level since 2022, as the market priced in an increased probability that the Fed may hike interest rates by another 0.25% at its October meeting. Short-term pressure on global risk assets, but positive for life insurance and banking stocks (BLA, TLI, KTB, KBANK, BBL).

• China signaled accelerated stimulus following economic slowdown and investment contraction. Initial steps include increasing the PBOC's relending quota, expediting bond issuances, and approving Six Networks investment projects, while studying measures to support real estate, employment, and household income. Short-term positive for China plays (SCGP, PTTGC, IVL).

• The Cabinet approved a Central Budget allocation of Bt4bn for flood relief payments of Bt9,000 per household, positive for building material retailers (HMPRO, GLOBAL, DCC). It also approved the Bt165bn Chainat-Pasak-Gulf of flood drainage canal project (8-year binding budget), positive for contractors (STECON, CK, SCC).

• THAI announced additional flight cancellations totaling 37 flights from Sep 29 to Oct 1, 2026, and suspended inbound and outbound cargo services at Suvarnabhumi warehouse until Oct 6, as flood crisis caused over ground staff shortage, resulting flight delays and severe baggage backlogs. Short-term negative to THAI, with potential spillovers to air-freight-related industries (III, WICE).

Strategy today
In the near term, the SET is expected to swing volatilely, with main pressure from external factors including the Fed's hawkish stance supporting sustained high bond yields and stalled US-Iran negotiations risking oil prices and inflation. Domestically, while facing near-term negative sentiment from flooding concerns (assessed as limited impact), the index is supported by political overhang resolution after the Constitutional Court rules the election not void, restoring stability confidence, along with expected buying from 3Q26 window dressing closure. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy".

Trading today
In the near term, the SET is expected to be volatile, pressured by the Fed's hawkish stance and stalled US-Iran negotiations risking oil prices and inflation. However, domestic factors provide support from political clarity (election not voided) and 3Q26 window dressing expectations, which are expected to offset flood concerns assessed as limited impact. The investment strategy therefore recommends "Selective Buy" emphasizing "Buy on Dip" through 4 trading themes with specific positive factors as follows:

1. Political Relief & Infrastructure Play — Expected to respond positively after the Constitutional Court rules the election not void. Includes contractors and construction materials (STECON, CK, SCC) and industrial estates (WHA, AMATA).

2. Flood Defensive & Recovery Plays — Benefit from flooding from emergency essential goods buying (CPALL, BJC, CRC) continuing to post-flood housing repair demand (HMPRO, GLOBAL) and construction materials (DCC).

3. Window Dressing Play — Expected to benefit from 3Q26 window dressing closure, focusing on SET50 stocks with lower price appreciation than market (%QTD Return below SET50) but solid fundamentals (DELTA, GULF, AOT, TRUE, CPN, BDMS, BH). Recommend setting exit points and watch for profit-taking in early October.

4. Tourism & Mega-Event Play — Expected to benefit from entering 4Q26 high tourism season supported by China's Golden Week (Oct 1-7) and global events like World Bank-IMF meetings (Oct), including tourism stocks (ERW, CENTEL, AOT) and retail stocks (CPALL, CPN, CRC).

Daily Top Picks
KCE: Short-term catalyst from upward momentum in global tech stocks and a weakening baht trend supporting export revenues. 2H26 earnings are expected to continue growing YoY, underpinned by selling price increases of ~10–12% and HDI capacity expansion to support high demand. Short-term TP is Bt78.00.

TRUE: Expected to face limited impact from the flood crisis and external pressures. 3Q26F normal profit is estimated to post strong growth to Bt6.8bn (+48% YoY, +1.3% QoQ), supported by an expanding subscriber base, online business revenues, a low base last year, and effective expense management. Short-term TP is Bt13.10.