The SET is expected to be volatile. A technical rebound is possible, supported by external sentiment as the probability of the Fed holding interest rates in October rises following lower-than-expected inflation data. However, rising US Treasury yields and crude oil prices continue to pose pressure, while persistent foreign fund outflows leave the market without strong momentum for a sustained recovery. Technically, after a sharp drop, a short-term technical rebound may occur, but no clear reversal signal has emerged yet, warranting high caution.
Markets
Remain volatile, lacking catalyst
Today's highlights
• News HighlightsUS Headline and Core PCE rose 3.4% YoY and 3.0% YoY in August, lower than market estimates and indicating price pressures are not accelerating broadly, easing Fed rate hike pressure. 2Q26 GDP was revised up to 2.2% QoQ from 1.5% QoQ, reflecting economic strength. However, the 10-year US Treasury yield hit a new high of 5.29%, posing short-term headwind for risk assets and negative for consumer finance (MTC, SAWAD, TIDLOR).
• Russia extended its diesel export ban to Oct 31 to maintain domestic stability, while a major Indian refinery (capacity 300,000 bpd) suffered an outage, worsening supply tightness and pushing up global diesel prices and refining margins. Short-term positive for refiners and petrochemicals (TOP, SPRC, PTTGC, IVL).
• TNSC stated THAI's cargo suspension at Suvarnabhumi warehouse (Oct 1–6) caused massive bottlenecks and backlogs, especially for electronic parts that cannot quickly switch to sea freight, impacting deliveries to the US, South Korea, and Taiwan. Short-term negative for electronics (DELTA, KCE, HANA) and air-freight logistics (THAI, III, WICE).
• RID expects northern runoff via the Chao Phraya basin to coincide with high tides on Oct 1–4, while TMD forecasts new storm rains on Oct 5–8. Short-term overhang on economic activities and SET sentiment, but positive for building material retailers on post-flood repairs (HMPRO, GLOBAL, DCC).
• BOI led a delegation to Seoul to discuss investment plans with Hyundai, T-Robotics, and COSMAX for smart manufacturing, robotics, and semiconductors, partnering on the Skill Bridge human resource development program and underscoring FDI inflows. Positive for industrial estates (WHA, AMATA).
Strategy today
In the near term, the SET is expected to be volatile, pressured mainly by external factors including the Fed's hawkish stance keeping bond yields elevated and weighing on fund flows, alongside prolonged US-Iran negotiations posing upside risks to oil prices and inflation. Domestically, investment sentiment remains dampened by flood concerns which, while assessed to have limited economic impact, continue to act as a near-term Overhang on market sentiment. The investment strategy therefore recommends Selective Buy.
Trading today
The SET is expected to be volatile amid broad-based pressures. On the external front, the Fed's hawkish stance is keeping bond yields elevated, pressuring fund outflows, while US-Iran tensions risk pushing oil prices and inflation higher. Domestically, flood situation concerns continue to weigh on near-term investment sentiment. The investment strategy therefore recommends Selective Buy, focusing on Buy on Dip opportunities across 4 trading themes with specific positive catalysts:
1. Political Relief & Infrastructure Play, expected to respond positively following the Constitutional Court ruling that the election is not void, including Construction & Building Materials (STECON, CK, SCC) and Industrial Estates (WHA, AMATA).
2. Flood Defensive & Recovery Play, benefiting from the flood situation ranging from emergency stockpiling demand including Commerce (CPALL, BJC, CRC), through to post-flood residential repair demand including Commerce (HMPRO, GLOBAL) and Building Materials (DCC).
3. Domestic Play stocks with high resilience to external factors, driven primarily by domestic consumption, including Commerce (CPALL, CPN, CRC), Healthcare (BCH, PR9), and Telecommunications (TRUE).
4. Tourism & Mega-Event Play, expected to benefit from the 4Q26 tourism high season supported by catalysts including China's Golden Week (Oct 1–7) and the global World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings (October), including Tourism (ERW, CENTEL, AOT) and Retail (CPALL, CPN, CRC).
Daily Top Picks
SPRC: Short-term catalyst from the extension of Russia's refined oil export ban through October 2026 and operational damage at Indian refineries. Meanwhile, US-Iran peace talks have seen no progress after President Trump denied rumors of easing sanctions, suggesting potential supply disruptions could persist. Short-term TP is Bt14.60.
TRUE: Expected to face limited impact from the flood crisis and external pressures. 3Q26F normal profit is estimated to post strong growth to Bt6.8bn (+48% YoY and +1.3% QoQ), supported by an expanding subscriber base, online business revenues, a low base last year, and effective expense management. Short-term TP is Bt12.90.