The SET is expected to move sideways-up, receiving positive sentiment from the IMF upgrading Thailand's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.1%. However, the upside may be capped by external pressures, as crude oil prices edge higher following the Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia, raising concerns over potential supply disruptions, alongside threats from Iran to target digital infrastructure in the Persian Gulf if the US launches a new wave of attacks, while foreign fund inflows remain lacking. Today's focus is on the 3Q26 earnings release of the banking sector, kicking off with TISCO. Technically, the index pulled back after failing to break above the 75-day moving average, keeping the recovery limited.
Markets
Recover, follow banks’ earnings
Today's highlights
• OPEC raised its global oil demand forecast for 2027 to 108.3 million bpd (+2.25 million bpd) to support inventory restocking, while the market remains concerned over Russian diesel export sanctions keeping global energy supply tight, providing short-term positive sentiment for the energy sector (PTTEP, TOP, SPRC).
• The US 10-year Treasury yield eased to 5.2% amid market expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75–4.00%, short-term positive sentiment for finance (TIDLOR, SAWAD, MTC) and power plant (GULF, GPSC, BGRIM) stocks, though tonight's US CPI figures remain in focus.
• The IMF upgraded Thailand's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.1% (from 1.9%) and maintained it at 2.1% for 2027, driven by the AI cycle and tech supply chains, while the BOT Governor estimates GDP growth this year at 2.3% on exports and private investment, positive sentiment for electronic components (DELTA, HANA, KCE).
• The Finance Minister highlighted the "Trusted Connector" vision to attract global investment, bridging the digital economy, FTAs, and regional clean energy networks, aligning with the 47% growth in BOI investment promotion applications during 1H26, positive sentiment for industrial estates (WHA, AMATA) and renewable energy (GULF, GPSC, BGRIM, GUNKUL).
• The Ministry of Finance clarified the draft departure tax legislation, setting the actual rate at approximately Bt1,000 per trip to be included in airline tickets to reduce fiscal burdens and promote domestic tourism, assessing the impact on airlines and foreign travelers as limited while offering a slight positive sentiment for domestic-focused tourism stocks (CENTEL, ERW).
Strategy today
In the near term, we expect the SET to trade in a narrow range, lacking fresh catalysts and with a reduced number of trading days (holidays on Oct 13 and 16). The market is nonetheless expected to shift its focus to 3Q26 earnings announcements from listed companies, led by the banking sector which will begin reporting from Oct 14–21, alongside flood damage assessments. External headwinds from elevated crude oil prices and bond yields persist. A key factor to watch is the US September CPI reading (Oct 14) — a softer print would help ease concerns over the Fed’s policy rate direction and support a recovery in global equity market sentiment. The investment strategy is therefore “Selective Buy”.
Trading today
The SET is expected to trade in a narrow range, lacking fresh catalysts and with a reduced number of trading days. The market is expected to turn its attention to 3Q26 earnings announcements — led by the banking sector — and flood damage assessments, while also monitoring the US September CPI reading (Oct 14), against a backdrop of elevated crude oil prices and bond yields. Our investment strategy is therefore “Selective Buy” with an emphasis on “Buy on Dip” across 4 trading ideas with specific positives as follows:
1. Earnings plays — Stocks expected to deliver strong 3Q26 earnings growth with Outperform ratings: YoY growth picks include KKP, DELTA, PTTEP, TRUE; and QoQ growth picks include KTB, BBL, TU.
2. Domestic plays — Stocks with stable revenue streams, resilient to external volatility through their reliance on the domestic economy: commerce (CPN, CRC), healthcare (BCH, PR9), and telecommunications (TRUE).
3. Post-flood recovery plays — Stocks set to benefit directly from demand for construction materials and home improvement products as floodwaters recede, alongside clarity on government relief and rehabilitation measures: home improvement retail (HMPRO, GLOBAL) and construction materials (DCC).
4. Tourism & mega-event plays — Stocks expected to benefit from the onset of the 4Q26 tourism high season, combined with a near-term boost from the large number of attendees at the IMF-World Bank meetings (Oct 12–18): tourism (ERW, CENTEL, AOT) and retail (CPN, CRC).
Daily Top Picks
PR9: Catalyst from strong earnings growth potential driven by an increasing patient volume, reflecting the gradual return of international patients, while domestic patients rise seasonally. Growth is also supported by the expansion of complex medical treatment services and efficient cost management. Short-term TP is Bt19.00.
PTTEP: Short-term catalyst from rising oil prices after OPEC projected accelerated global demand growth in 2027 driven by inventory restocking, alongside a new PSC contract that enhances production share and profit-generation potential. The stock also offers a strong dividend yield of around 7%. Short-term TP is Bt152.50.