The SET is expected to be volatile. The index is anticipated to rebound on bargain hunting, with electronics stocks likely benefiting from the rally in global tech shares. However, upside momentum will be capped by oil price volatility—driven by escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, which offsets news of Russia-Ukraine peace talks and Russia's willingness to export diesel to the US today. Additionally, potential risk-off selling may emerge as the Thai stock market will be closed tomorrow. Technically, the index broke below its previous low before bouncing back; despite the reversal, overall signals do not yet show a clear recovery trend.
Markets
External factors uncertain, still volatile
Today's highlights
• Russia is preparing to send an initial shipment of 40,000 tonnes of diesel to the US. Meanwhile, President Putin showed a conciliatory stance by releasing an American hostage and agreeing to tripartite peace talks (Russia-Ukraine-US) as early as Nov 10. Negative sentiment for energy and refinery stocks (PTTEP, TOP, SPRC, BCP).
• The Deputy Minister of Transport plans to propose a central budget framework capped at Bt5.8bn to the Cabinet to support the Bt17–45 flat electric rail fare measure and extending the Bt40 all-day pass for the Red and Purple lines alongside pushing a joint ticketing system. Positive for rail transport stocks (BEM, BTS).
• SpaceX reported strong 3Q26 revenue growth of 161% YoY, driven by a 9-fold expansion in its AI division and the Starlink network. Elon Musk also noted potential merger opportunities between SpaceX and Tesla. This provides positive sentiment for electronics stocks (DELTA, HANA, KCE).
• Apple is set to launch the "iPhone Duo", its first foldable smartphone, in Thailand on Oct 23 starting at Bt79,900, with initial pre-orders selling out within minutes, reflecting robust high-end purchasing power that will drive year-end sales. This is positive for IT retailers (COM7, SPVI, SYNEX) and mobile operators (ADVANC, TRUE).
• The Trade Policy and Strategy Office proposed three guidelines to tackle climate risks as natural phenomena and drought pressure agricultural supply, continuously pushing global selling prices upward. This provides positive sentiment for rubber (STA, TRUBB, NER, TEGH) and palm oil stocks (UVAN, UPOIC, CPI).
Strategy today
In the near term, we expect the SET to continue trading sideways, as the market lacks significant fresh catalysts. On the domestic front, attention is focused on the rolling release of 3Q26 earnings from the banking sector, with the market zeroing in on net interest margin (NIM) trends, loan loss provisioning, and NPL management. On the external front, bond yields and US economic data warrant close monitoring to gauge the Fed’s rate policy direction at its October meeting, while ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions continue to pressure oil prices and cap the upside for risk assets. The investment strategy is therefore “Selective Buy”.
Trading today
We view the SET as likely to trade sideways, lacking fresh catalysts. On the domestic front, attention remains on 3Q26 banking sector earnings, while externally, US bond yields and economic data warrant close monitoring to gauge the Fed’s rate direction at its October meeting, with ongoing Middle East tensions continuing to pressure oil prices and cap the upside for risk assets. Our investment strategy is therefore “Selective Buy” with an emphasis on “Buy on Dip” across 4 trading ideas with specific positives as follows:
1. Earnings momentum plays — Stocks expected to report strong 3Q26 earnings growth over the next two weeks with Outperform ratings: YoY growth picks include KKP, DELTA, PTTEP, GLOBAL, SCGP; and QoQ growth picks include KTB.
2. FDI & new economy plays — Stocks expected to benefit structurally from Thailand’s hosting of the IMF-World Bank meetings, which showcased the country’s potential to attract FDI, alongside the government’s New Economy policy drive: digital banking (KBANK, KTB, BBL), industrial estates (WHA, AMATA), electronics (DELTA, HANA, KCE), clean energy (GULF, GPSC, GUNKUL), and technology & cybersecurity (TRUE, SECURE).
3. Defensive domestic plays — Stocks tied to domestic consumption with stable revenue streams and resilience to external volatility: retail (CPN, CRC), including post-flood construction material retail (HMPRO, GLOBAL), healthcare (BCH, PR9), and telecommunications (TRUE).
4. High-season tourism & flood relief plays — Stocks set to benefit from easing flood concerns as the situation passes its peak and Thailand enters the 4Q26 tourism high season: tourism (ERW, CENTEL, AOT) and retail (CPN, CRC).
Daily Top Picks
BDMS: Short-term catalyst from 3Q26F performance, which is expected to turn around to YoY growth from the previous quarter, with core profit projected at Bt4.7bn (+8% YoY, +47% QoQ). Growth is supported by pent-up demand deferred from 2Q26 and a seasonal rise in medical visits, with the recovery expected to continue into 4Q26. Short-term TP is Bt19.70.
HANA: Short-term positive sentiment from SpaceX's total revenue in 3Q26 surging 161% YoY, driven by a remarkable 9-fold increase in AI business revenue. 3Q26F earnings are expected to post a standout recovery driven by the initial production of high-margin AI-related products, with net profit projected to grow continuously over the next 2–3 years. Short-term TP is Bt51.25.