สวัสดีตอนเช้า - 3 ก.ย. 2567 ยังพักตัว แรงซื้อชะลอช่วงสั้น

The SET is expected to continue to rest to reduce heat. Foreign buys have slowed due to baht appreciation but the signal is still good for the market, backed by the expected interest rate cut and new government's stimulus. Supports are at 1350 and 1345, which are expected to stand firm; resistances are at 1360 and 1366.

• The Ministry of Transport plans to push the Land Bridge project during this government's term. It is drafting the Southern Economic Corridor (SEC) Act, expected to be proposed to parliament by September 2025, with construction is anticipated to begin in 3Q26.
• IEAT reports record-high land sales/leases of 6,174 rai in FY2024, the second year of record sales, indicating sustained demand.
• China is threatening strong economic retaliation against Japan, including restricting access to essential minerals for automotive production, if Japan exerts greater control on chip-making equipment sales to Chinese companies. This could complicate US efforts to limit China's access to advanced technologies.
• Two oil tankers, the Saudi-flagged Amjad and the Panamanian-flagged Blue Lagoon I, were attacked in the Red Sea off Yemen's coast yesterday.
• Reuters reports OPEC's oil production in August decreased by 340,000 bpd to 26.36mn bpd, the lowest since January, due to production cuts in Libya and voluntary reductions by OPEC+.
• Huawei Technologies plans to launch new products on September 10, shortly after Apple Inc.'s iPhone 16 unveiling on September 9.
• BYD reports record-high August car sales of 370,854 units, up 30% YoY, driven by a 48% increase in hybrid sales, which accounted for about two-thirds of total sales. BEV (battery electric vehicle) sales grew by 12%.

In the short term, the SET is expected to move sideways up, driven by recovering consumer confidence as the political scene settles and on hopes of rapid stimulus in 3Q-4Q24. The BoT seems more open to an interest rate cut and funds are flowing into EMs, resulting in appreciation of the baht and other Asian currencies. Funds are expected to move out of Energy, Petrochemical and ICT and flow into Bank, Commerce, Construction Services and Healthcare, which will reduce the impact from externals, i.e. slowing US and China manufacturing and services PMIs. Our strategy is "selective buy".

In the short term the SET is expected to move sideways up on clearer political skies and acceleration of economic stimulus in 3Q-4Q24. We recommend "Selective Buy" with four main themes:
1) Stocks expected to benefit from more rapid short-term stimulus by the new government in September that will benefit consumer staples players - CPALL, CPAXT, TNP and CBG.
2) For investors who want to generate short-term cash, we recommend high quality dividend stocks that are paying a 1H24 interim dividend with yield of more than 1.5% - HTC, BCP and BBL.
3) Investors who want to speculate in stocks that benefit from a downward interest rate cycle - leasing (MTC), property development (AP), commerce (CPALL and CPAXT), and utilities (GULF).
4) Earnings plays on stocks with strong profit momentum, with 3Q24 profit expected to grow YoY and QoQ, 2H24 expected to grow HoH and YoY and inexpensive valuations - DELTA, GULF, BDMS and BEM

CPALL: 2H24 profit is expected to grow YoY, leading peers, driven by strong sales growth and margin in the CVS unit and CPAXT. It is also poised to benefit from the more rapid release of economic stimulus by the new government, not yet in our forecast. Recommend buy for trading at not higher than Bt60.75/share.
CKP: In the short term it will benefit from declining bond yield. 3Q24 profit is expected to continue to improve due to rainy season that will raise water volume for generation to this year's high. Electricity generation and water inflow in July rose YoY at both XPCL and NN2 dams. Recommend buy for trading at not higher than Bt3.70/share.

WHA (Initiate coverage) - Aiming at higher growth in 2025F