สรุปตลาดรายเดือน- เดือนกรกฎาคม 2567

A look back at June and ahead to July

Recovery in the SET in July seems iffy despite the steady fall since late May. We are cautious in view of the absence of strong market drivers and lingering uncertainties surrounding various factors: domestic politics, the Bt10,000 digital wallet, the revival of the Vayupak Fund for capital market support and the timing of the Fed’s cut in policy interest rate. The steady outflow of foreign funds limits upside at resistances of 1,320 and 1,335; supports are assigned at 1,280 and 1,260.

In June, the SET fell to its lowest in nearly four years, driven down primarily by the prolonged and unresolved political uncertainty. External factors also played a role, chiefly the FOMC’s revised interest rate projections indicating a single rate cut this year and the ongoing outflow of funds on specific negatives for several stocks. Together, these negatives pushed the market to its lowest in three years and seven months, falling below the previous low set in November 2020. The market did manage to claw back up somewhat towards the end of the month, backed by preparation for the launch of capital market stimulus measures.

In June, foreign investors were net sellers for the second month at Bt35bn compared to a net sell of Bt17bn in May. However, US$3.5bn in funds flowed into Asia-Pacific stock markets. Foreign investors were net buyers in the stock markets of South Korea at US$3.8bn and Taiwan at US$1.3bn, but were net sellers in Thailand at US$0.9bn, Vietnam at US$0.6bn and the Philippines at US$0.1bn.

Hoping for equity market stimulus to boost the SET. Despite the ongoing volatility and fragility of the Thai stock market due to lingering domestic political factors, there are hopes the market will recover with the help of stimulus and favorable economic conditions. We recommend: 1) stocks benefitting more from the recovery of the global economy versus domestic-oriented stocks that are subject to greater uncertainty; 2) stocks that may benefit from potential short-covering following the implementation of the “uptick rule” by the SET on July 1; 3) stocks benefitting from shortening the holding period and raising maximum tax incentives for the tax-deductible Thai ESG; 4) defensive stocks that can reduce portfolio volatility and are protected from conflict in the Middle East.

This month: Domestic: 1) Jul 5 – CPI for Jun; 2) Jul 12 – consumer confidence for Jun; 3) Jul 26 – trade balance for Jun. Foreign: 1) Jul 1 – US ISM manufacturing PMI for Jun; 2) Jul 3 – US ISM services PMI for Jun, US ADP non-farm employment change for Jun; 3) Jul 5 – US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate for Jun; 4) Jul 11 – US CPI for Jun; 5) Jul 12 – US PPI for Jun; 6) Jul 18 – ECB meeting; 7) Jul 20 – BoE meeting; 8) Jul 25 – US advance GDP for 2Q24; 9) Jul 26 – US PCE price index for Jun; 10) Jul 30-31 – FOMC meeting.