INVX STRATEGY กลยุทธ์การลงทุน 3Q24 - โลกฟื้นตัว ไทยฟื้นตาม
ผลตอบแทนระดับสูงของตลาดสหรัฐฯ และหุ้นเติบโตเมื่อเทียบกับหุ้นคุณค่าและหุ้นเทคฯ ไม่ใช่ผลที่เกิดจากความคาดหวังที่สูงเกินไปอย่างไร้เหตุผล แต่สะท้อนถึงความแตกต่างค่อนข้างมากของการเติบโตของกำไร เราคาดว่ากำไรของตลาด EM ทำจุดต่ำสุดแล้วใน 1Q24 และจะเริ่มฟื้นตัวตั้งแต่ 2Q24
เราเชื่อว่าจีนและไทยจะลดช่องว่างที่มีกับสหรัฐฯ และสหภาพยุโรปในแง่ของ price performance ลงได้ด้วยแรงหนุนจากการเติบโตของกำไร
กดอ่านเพิ่มเติมและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จากปุ่มด้านล่าง ดาวน์โหลดเอกสาร คลิก! |
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3Q24 InnovestX Strategy - Closing the gap Signs of synchronized recovery. A recovery is emerging across different regions. The manufacturing sector is showing signs of improvement, especially in Asia, where the situation resembles the previous recovery phase of 2016-18. This suggests that the Asian manufacturing sector could continue to improve until the end of this year or early next year at least. Soft landing in US could prompt a rate cut in 4Q24. The US economy is showing signs of deceleration. The high cost of borrowing dampens consumer spending and affects the production sector. We expect that the US economy will keep losing momentum, especially in the manufacturing sector and labor market, which will prompt the Fed to cut interest rates. Thai economy recovers cyclically, but structural slowdown. We expect the Thai economy to regain some momentum, as the latest data shows signs of improvement in the manufacturing and tourism sectors. We project the economy will grow 2.5% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025. The main economic risks stem from political issues, such as the possible delay of the FY2025 budget by at least two quarters, which would pressure domestic consumption. Geopolitical risks are emerging. We anticipate a worsening in the situation ahead of the US presidential election. The relationship between the US and China will deteriorate, especially if Trump wins a second term as president that could lead to a strong dollar and rising inflation, both negative to markets. Closing the gap. Strong returns in the US, growth vs value and tech were not the result of irrational exuberance but reflected the wide divergence of profit growth. We expect EM earnings to bottom in 1Q24 and start to recover from 2Q24. We believe China and Thailand will narrow their gap with the US and EU in terms of price performance, driven by earnings growth. Staying the course. Growth sectors will lag behind value and cyclical sectors except for tech. The Thai market is weak but could improve with more stimulus and earnings recovery. Political and economic news may boost the Thai market in 3Q24. We expect the SET Index to rally and reach 1500 by the end of 2024. Focusing on earnings recovery. We like companies that are seeing steady earnings recovery and can benefit from global economic recovery and bypass the cloudy domestic growth outlook. This determines our selection of top picks for 3Q24, which are: ADVANC, KCE, OSP, PTTGC and TU. |