สรุปตลาดรายเดือน - เดือนพฤศจิกายน 2566

A look back at Oct and ahead to Nov

In November, the SET is expected to fluctuate within a given range, with the support at 1,356 and 1,343, where a rebound could happen as the market will be technically oversold and valuations fundamentally attractive. At 1,350, the SET trades at a P/E ratio of only 13.5x, which could lead to buying back to support levels. Resistance is put at 1,410 and 1,437, with several negative factors that will exert pressure on the market and require close monitoring: escalating tensions in the Middle East, inflation, high bond yield and the Fed’s high interest rates.

The SET plunged to a three-year low below 1,400 on a barrage of negatives, yet another month of decline. The index was pressured by a variety of domestic negative, including the BoT’s expressed concerns about the long-term prospects of the Thai economy due to structural issues, leading to a depreciation of the Thai baht, which fell below 37 THB/USD. Concurrently, bond yield surged. Additionally, the digital wallet was postponed to April-May 2024. Abroad, pressure came from the war in the Middle East had might indirectly affect automotive exports and tourism.

In Oct, foreign investors were net sellers for the ninth month at Bt15.7bn, compared to a net sell of Bt22bn in Sep. Throughout the month, funds exited from almost all stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region. Foreign investors were net sellers in Thailand at US$0.37bn, Indonesia at US$0.41bn, the Philippines at US$0.16bn, Malaysia at US$0.46bn, Vietnam at US$0.12bn, Taiwan at US$4.41bn and South Korea, at US$2.15bn. YTD, foreign investors have net sold more than US$4.77bn in the Thai stock market, second only to Taiwan, where net selling has surpassed US$6.59bn, while South Korea still maintains a net buying position of approximately US$4.16bn.

Rebound expected, but upside limited, opportunity to accumulate. The SET is expected to recover, driven by expectation of China's economic recovery and a continuing strong US economy but upside is limited due to several negative factors that require close monitoring, including the escalating tensions in the Middle East, inflationary concerns, high bond yields, and the persistent higher-for-longer stance of the Fed. On the domestic front, attention should be given to the announcement of 3Q23 results in non-bank sectors. We see the recent downturn in the SET as an opportunity to accumulate stocks with solid fundamentals: 1) Undervalued stocks that have entered oversold territory; 2) stocks with YoY and QoQ earnings growth in 4Q23; 3) high dividend-yield stocks with dividend yield above 4%.

This month:Domestic: 1) Nov 6 – CPI for Oct; 2) Nov 10 – Consumer confidence for Oct; 3) Nov 20 – 3Q23 GDP; 4) Nov 28 – Trade balance for Oct; 5) Nov 29 – BoT’s MPC meeting. Foreign: 1) Nov 1 – US ISM manufacturing PMI for Oct, US ADP non-farm payrolls for Oct; 2) Nov 3 – US ISM services PMI for Oct, US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for Oct; 3) Nov 14 – US CPI for Oct; 4) Nov 15 – US PPI for Oct, US retail sales for Oct; 5) Nov 29 – US prelim GDP 3Q23.