สรุปตลาดรายเดือน - เดือนพฤษภาคม 2567

A look back at Apr and ahead to May

In May, SET movement is limited, with resistances at 1380-1400, and we suggest staying wary for downside. There are several pressures generating a ‘Sell in May’ scenario: 1) low economic growth; 2) monetary policy risk on a slower cut in policy rate by the Fed; 3) political factors, especially tensions in the Middle East; 4) many XDs posting. We assign support at 1330 and 1300. The market needs to push through 1411 to confirm a break in the downward trend.

In Apr,the SET declined to 3.5-year low. At the beginning of the month, the SET surprised with a rally to above 1400, backed by domestic factors such as clarity on the Bt10,000 digital wallet scheme and stimulus for the real estate sector. However, toward mid-month, external factors weighed on the market: concerns about the conflict in the Middle East and the possibility that the Fed will cut policy interest rates more slowly than previously anticipated. These pushed the market down more than 80 points to 1330, the lowest since Nov 2020, before it finally hinted at recovery towards the end of the month.

In Apr, foreign investors switched to be net buyers at Bt3.9bn after a net sell of Bt41.3bn in Mar. An immense US$5.1bn in funds flowed out of Asia-Pacific stock markets. Foreign investors were net sellers in the stock markets of Taiwan at US$4.9bn, Indonesia at US$1.2bn, Malaysia at US$0.4bn, Vietnam at US$0.2bn and the Philippines at US$0.1bn, but were net buyers in the stock markets of South Korea at US$1.7bn and Thailand at US$0.08bn.

The Thai stock market remains fragile, with indicators negative and downside risks opening up after sinking to a new low. Although there have been spotty rebounds, upside potential remains limited. As an investment strategy, we recommend the following: 1) defensive stocks whose fundamentals are strong and earnings do not fluctuate with the economy; 2) stocks with YoY earnings growth expected in 1Q24; 3) stocks that can reduce portfolio volatility and act as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East.

This month: Domestic: 1) May 7 – CPI for Apr; 2) May 10 – Consumer confidence for Apr; 3) May 15 – 1Q24 Thai GDP; 4) May 30 – Trade balance for Apr. Foreign: 1) May 1 – FOMC meeting, US ISM manufacturing PMI for Apr; 2) May 3 – US ISM services PMI for Apr, US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate for Apr; 3) May 9 – BOE meeting; 4) May 14 – US PPI for Apr; 5) May 15 – US CPI for Apr, US retail sales for Apr; 6) May 23 – FOMC meeting minutes; 7) May 24 – US durable goods orders, US prelim GDP for 1Q24; 8) May 31 – US PCE price index for Apr