สรุปตลาดรายเดือน - เดือนมีนาคม 2567

In March, SET movement is expected to be limited at resistance of ~1390-1410 due to lack of positive factors and expected sell-on-fact post earnings season and XD. The uncertainty surrounding the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts will also weigh on market sentiment. On the downside, the market has support at 1350-1360, with risk of falling further to 1330 and 1300.

In Feb, the SET recovered slightly, supported by the expectation of a policy interest rate cut at the next FOMC meeting as inflation rate has been negative for several months and two of seven monetary policy committee members agreed to cut the policy rate at the last meeting. Foreign funds flowed into the region, following the PBOC's stimulus, helping the Thai stock market, which had been lagging regional markets, recover to 1370 from its low of 1357 in the second half of Jan.

In Feb, foreign investors switched to be net buyers for the first time in thirteen months at Bt2.86bn after a huge net sell of Bt30.9bn in Jan. A large US$10.6bn in funds flowed into Asia-Pacific stock markets. Foreign investors were net buyers in the stock markets of South Korea at US$5.9bn, Taiwan at US$3.4bn, Indonesia at US$0.7bn, Malaysia at US$0.4bn, Thailand at US$0.2bn and the Philippines at US$0.1bn, but were net sellers in the stock market in Vietnam at US$0.1bn.

The SET is expected to benefit from fund inflows, although it will be pressured by external factors. However, hopes of a policy interest rate cut at the next meeting amid negative inflation, less short-selling and expected fund inflows will lift the mood. Our recommend strategy is selective, with these themes. 1) Speculative stocks - If the SET Index recovers, there is expected to be buying back from short covering and fund flows while at the same time, these remain fundamentally strong stocks. 2) High dividend stocks: stocks with dividend yields above 4% and rising dividend payout ratios. 3) DCA in undervalued stocks: Stocks with AAA/AA ESG ratings, valuations below 10-year averages and strong performances.

This month: Domestic: 1) Mar 5 – CPI for Feb; 3) Mar 29 – Export & import value for Feb. Foreign: 1) Mar 1 – US ISM manufacturing PMI for Feb; 2) Mar 5 – US ISM services PMI for Feb; 3) Mar 6 – US ADP non-farm employment change for Feb; 4) Mar 7 – ECB meeting; 5) Mar 8 – US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate for Feb; 6) Mar 12 – US CPI for Feb; 7) Mar 14 – US PPI for Feb, US retail sales for Feb; 8) Mar 19 – BoJ meeting; 9) Mar 19-20 – FOMC meeting; 10) Mar 21 – BoE meeting; 11) Mar 28 – US final GDP for 4Q23; 12) Mar 29 – US PCE price index for Feb.