MINT รายงานกำไรสุทธิ 1Q67 ที่ 1.1 พันลบ. โดยได้แรงหนุนจากรายการพิเศษ เมื่อหักรายการพิเศษออกไป พบว่าบริษัทมีขาดทุนปกติ 352 ลบ. (ปรับตัวดีขึ้น YoY จากการดำเนินงานโรงแรมที่แข็งแกร่งขึ้น แต่ลดลง QoQ จากช่วงโลว์ซีซั่นของการท่องเที่ยวในยุโรป) ผลประกอบการออกมาต่ำกว่า INVX และตลาดคาด โดยมีสาเหตุมาจากธุรกิจร้านอาหารที่อ่อนแอ เราคาดว่า 1Q67 จะเป็นจุดต่ำสุดของปี 2567 โดยกำไรจะแข็งแกร่งขึ้น (+YoY และ +QoQ) ใน 2Q67 โดยได้แรงหนุนจากช่วงไฮซีซั่นของการท่องเที่ยวในยุโรปใน 2Q67 MINT เป็น 1 ในหุ้นเด่นของเราในกลุ่มท่องเที่ยว
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ท่าน สามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก MINT16052024_T
MINT reported a 1Q24 net profit of Bt1.1bn, driven by extra items. Excluding these shows a core loss of Bt352mn (improving YoY from stronger hotel operations but worse QoQ from lower tourism season in Europe). Earnings missed INVX and market estimates due to a weak food business. We expect 1Q24 to be the year’s bottom, with earnings up both YoY and QoQ in 2Q24, backed by a higher tourism season in Europe. MINT is on our top pick list for the tourism sector. 1Q24: Slightly below estimates. MINT reported a 1Q24 net profit of Bt1.1bn, driven by extra items. Excluding these showed a core loss of Bt352mn, improving from the core loss of Bt647mn in 1Q23 from stronger hotel operations but worsening from a core profit of Bt2.5bn in 4Q23 from a lower tourism season in Europe. Behind the miss to INVX and market estimates of a core loss of Bt135-243mn was a weak food business. Highlights. Hotel business (73% of revenue): NHH (MINT’s lead operations in Europe) reported a core loss of €30.4mn in 1Q24 (or ~Bt1.2bn), better than the core loss of €40mn in 1Q23 but down from profit of €32.9mn in 4Q23 on a lower tourism season in Europe. Occupancy rate was 62% in 1Q24 (vs. 60% in 1Q23 and 68.4% in 4Q23) and average room rate (ARR) continued solid at €121/night (+5% YoY but -12% QoQ), with revenue per available room (RevPar) at €75/night (+12% YoY but -21% QoQ). RevPar for hotels in Thailand grew 25% YoY while RevPar for hotels in Maldives dropped 10% YoY. Food business (21% of revenue): Overall SSS was -3.4% in 1Q24 (vs. +11.4% in 1Q23 and -2.2% in 4Q23). By location, Thailand reported the strong SSS at +1.8% while China was weakest at -27.2% (vs. +15.1% in 1Q23) attributed to weakened consumer confidence and high base effect in 1Q23 after China’s reopening. Interest expense was Bt2.8bn, up 17% YoY but down 6% QoQ. Interest-bearing debt to equity was 1.13x (as of March 31, 2024), down from 1.17x (as of December 31, 2023) and below its debt covenant of 1.75x Earnings forecast maintained. We expect 1Q24 to be the year’s bottom, with stronger operations and earnings (+YoY and +QoQ) in 2Q24, underwritten by a higher tourism season in Europe in 2Q24. Additionally, European tourism will gain from special sporting events this year: Football’s UEFA Euro 2024 in Germany (June 14–July 14) and the Paris 2024 Olympics (July 26–August 11). We maintain our forecast core earnings growth of 12% in 2024 to Bt8.0bn. To align with the sector, we apply DCF methodology (changed from sum-of-the-parts) to MINT and this has little effect on our end-2024 TP of Bt44/share, based on WACC at 6.8% and long-term growth at 2%. Risks. 1) An economic slowdown that would derail travel demand and 2) cost inflation that would damage the profitability of its hotel and food businesses. We see ESG risk as effective environmental management of greenhouse gases, energy, wastewater, and waste (E) |
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