|
CPAXT มองเป็นหนึ่งในผู้ได้รับประโยชน์รายหลักของกลุ่มพาณิชย์จากมาตรการกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจที่กำลังจะออกมา (ดิจิทัลวอลเล็ต/ผู้ถือบัตรสวัสดิการแห่งรัฐ) ทั้งนี้ด้วย SSS ที่เติบโตแข็งแกร่งกว่าผู้ประกอบการรายอื่นๆ ในกลุ่มพาณิชย์ จึงคาดกำไร 3Q67 จะเติบโต YoY จากยอดขายและมาร์จิ้นที่ดีขึ้น ต่อจากนั้นกำไรจะทำจุดสูงสุดของปีนี้ใน 4Q67
AOT มองเป็นหนึ่งในหุ้นที่ได้อานิสงส์จากแผนกระตุ้นการท่องเที่ยวไทย และราคาหุ้นมีโอกาสฟื้นตัวหลังปลดล็อก overhang หยุดประกอบกิจการร้านค้าปลอดอากรขาเข้าไปแล้ว ขณะที่กำไรยังมีแนวโน้มปรับขึ้นสอดคล้องกับอุตสาหกรรมท่องเที่ยวไทยที่เติบโต โดยประเมินกําไรปกติ 4QFY67 (ก.ค.-ก.ย. 67) จะเติบโต YoY และปี FY2567 มีกำไรปกติโตเด่น 109%YoY
|
|
ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240823_T
|
Upside limited, weakening
|
| Market today |
|
SET upside is limited with resistances at 1345 and 1350. Investors are waiting for Jackson Hole symposium tonight to see what signs the Fed gives about interest rate direction, slowing buying and raising risk-averse selling. Supports are at 1330 and 1325.
|
| Today’s highlights |
• The SEC is promoting and developing the digital asset market while protecting investors. They are also pushing for fundraising through Investment Tokens, especially for Green Projects and Soft Power initiatives. For Utility Tokens, it has proposed to the Revenue Department to collect taxes only once.
• The Energy Minister says a special working group has met to consider draft laws regarding oil price restructuring. The draft is now complete and will be reviewed by a panel of experts before being submitted to the Cabinet and then to the Parliament for consideration.
• Today, FTI, the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Bankers' Association will meet with PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra to discuss solutions to economic problems and collaborative policy implementation.
• Former PM Thaksin shared his view that monetary and fiscal policies must be coordinated. He suggested adjusting the tax structure using Negative Income Tax, expanding Suvarnabhumi Airport to attract tourists and encouraging private investment of Bt100bn to advance the Entertainment Complex project and bring the underground economy to the surface.
• Thaksin said the government plans to distribute Bt10,000 to vulnerable and disabled people in September, with a budget of Bt145bn, to stimulate the economy, and look at ways to use the FY2025 budget to distribute Bt10,000 through digital wallets to 30mn individuals after October.
• At 9:00 PM local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole meeting in Wyoming. Investors are looking for clear signals on whether the Fed will reduce interest rates by 0.25% or 0.50%.
• Greenpeace reports new coal-fired power plant construction permits in China in 1H24 were issued for only 14 plants, totaling 10.3GW, a significant 80% YoY decrease, due to the acceleration of wind and solar power generation capacity.
|
| Strategy today |
|
In the short term, the SET will be volatile pending the formation of the new government and announcement of its policies. The index is expected to have resistance between 1350-1360. US PMIs in August are reported at 4-month low, causing the market to expect an interest rate cut by the Fed, which is consistent with the Fed Minutes. Our strategy is "selective buy".
|
| Trading today |
|
While the SET is expected to fluctuate while waiting for the formation of the new government and its announcement of its economic policies, there are still hopes the Thai stock market will be aided in its recovery by increased fund flows into emerging markets and greater political clarity. We recommend "Selective Buy" with four main themes:
1) Earnings plays: strong profit momentum, with 3Q24 profit expected to grow YoY and QoQ and grow YoY and HoH in 2H24, while valuations are attractive - DELTA, GULF, TU, BTG, BDMS, TRUE and BEM.
2) For risk-averse investors who want to generate cash flow from their portfolio, we suggest dividend stocks for a short-term investment - BCP (expected to pay interim dividend with a 2% yield) and TU (announced interim dividend of Bt0.31/share, ~2% yield).
3) Stocks expected to benefit from the adjustment of ThaiESG conditions that will raise the maximum tax reduction to Bt300,000 and reduce the holding period to 5 years - ADVANC, AOT, CPALL, BDMS, BBL, KTB and GULF.
4) Brent price has recovered as there continues to be attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea and on energy infrastructure in Russia, although the Middle East conflicts remain fairly contained. We expect the price to be at US$80-90/bbl. Oil stocks are good as a hedge against risk. For high-risk takers, we recommend an upstream oil stock - PTTEP.
|
|
Daily top picks
|
|
CPAXT: Poised to benefit directly from the expected government stimulus packages (digital wallet/state welfare card) and SSS is better than peers. 3Q24 profit is expected to grow YoY from higher sales and margin and is expected to peak in 4Q24.
AOT: It benefits from any tourism stimulus, and stock price is likely to come back up removing the overhang from the cessation of duty-free shops for incoming passengers. Profit is expected to grow in line with the tourism industry. FY4Q24 profit (Jul-Sep 2024) is expected to grow YoY, and FY2024 core profit is expected to jump 109%.
|
|
Today’s reports
|
|
CPAXT - To gain via operational growth & stimulus
HANA - Expect 2H24 earnings to improve HoH
HMPRO - Undemanding valuation, lifted by better sentiment
|
| |
| Click here to read and/or download Daily240823_E |
|
