HMPRO มองเป็นหุ้นได้อานิสงส์จากการปรับปรุงซ่อมแซมที่อยู่อาศัยหลังเกิดน้ำท่วมในภาคเหนือ ขณะที่แม้คาด 3Q67 กำไรจะเป็นจุดตํ่าสุดของปีนี้ โดยทรงตัว YoY เนื่องจาก SSS ที่หดตัวลงใน 3Q67TD จะถูกชดเชยโดยการขยายสาขาและมาร์จิ้นที่ขยายตัวเพิ่มขึ้น แต่กําไรจะเพิ่มขึ้นทำจุดสูงสุดของปีนี้ใน 4Q67 ส่วน Valuation ยังต่ำสุดในกลุ่มฯ โดยเทรด PER 67F ที่ 17.8 เท่า (-2SD)
AP มองเป็นนหุ้นได้อานิสงส์จากความคาดหวังแนวโน้มดอกเบี้ยเข้าสู่ภาวะขาลง รวมทั้งรัฐบาลใหม่จะสามารถเร่งออกมาตรการกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจและสนับสนุนภาคธุรกิจอสังหาริมทรัพย์ให้สามารถพลิกฟื้นใน 2H67 ขณะที่ 3Q67 คาดกําไรสุทธิจทำจุดสูงสุดของปีนี้ อีกทั้ง Valuation ยังอยู่ในระดับไม่แพงและมีจุดเด่นจ่ายปันผลสูงโดยให้ Div. Yield เฉลี่ยราวปีละ 8%
|
ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240826_T
Be more cautious, watch the Middle East
|
Market today |
Although the SET benefits from the Fed's signal of a cut in interest rate and baht appreciation leading to fund inflow, the steady rise will bring profit-taking; at the same time, tension is rising in the Middle East. Supports are at 1348 and 1340, while resistances are at 1360 and 1366.
|
Today’s highlights |
• Fed Chairman Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole conference, expressing confidence that inflation will fall to the 2% target. He does not expect a further slowdown in the labor market. Markets interpret this as paving the way for interest rate cuts this year. • The governor of the BoT said the MPC is ready to adjust interest rates based on three factors: economic growth, inflation and financial system stability. The economy is on track but with increased downside risks, suggesting more policy flexibility if financial conditions tighten excessively. • The Ministry of Finance reports the draft law for entertainment complexes is undergoing public hearings. After gathering opinions from all sectors, the draft will be sent to the cabinet for consideration late this year. • The Chamber of Commerce and FTI support the new government's plan to distribute a total of Bt145bn in cash to 14.5mn vulnerable people. They believe this will stimulate the economy quickly and will propose additional measures to encourage spending. • The SET believes existing measures like the ThaiESG Fund and Vayupak Fund, if implemented quickly, could significantly improve the climate in the Thai stock market and benefit the capital market. • Tensions in the Middle East have escalated, with Hezbollah launching numerous missiles and drones at northern Israel on August 25, followed by Israeli airstrikes in retaliation. • Bloomberg reports that Apple is set to launch new products, including the iPhone 16, new watches, and the latest AirPods, on September 10. Sales are expected to begin from September 20.
|
Strategy today |
In the short term, the SET is expected to move sideways up, driven by hopes for the new government's stimulus packages in 3Q-4Q24; funds are still flowing into the Thai capital market but not strongly since Thailand's economy is growing more slowly than others in the region. Funds are expected to flow out of Energy, ICT and Electronics to Bank, Commerce and Healthcare sectors. US inflation is expected to slow, which will support the Fed's interest rate cut. China's PMI is expected to be weak, already partly in the market. Our strategy is "selective buy".
|
Trading today |
In the short term the SET is expected to move sideways up driven by hopes from the new government and stimulus packages, while funds continue to flow into the Thai capital market but not strongly in view of its slower economy compared to others the region. We recommend "Selective Buy" with four main themes: 1) Investors who want to speculate on stocks which are oversold and undervalued - SCGP, BCH, KCE, PTTGC and OSP; be cautious in the short term on stocks which are overbought - COM7, VGI, TRUE and ADVANC. 2) Stocks benefiting from hopes for new stimulus by the new government that will benefit companies tied to consumer staples - CPALL, CPAXT, TNP, OSP and CBG. 3) Investors who want to speculate on stocks expected to benefit from the downward interest rate cycle - leasing (MTC and TIDLOR), property development (AP, SPALI and SIRI), commerce (CPALL and CPAXT) and utilities (GULF and CKP). 4) Earnings plays with good profit momentum, with 3Q24 profit expected to grow YoY and QoQ, and growth YoY and HoH in 2H24 and with attractive valuations - DELTA, GULF, BDMS and BEM.
|
Daily top picks
|
HMPRO: The company will benefit from home repairs from damage created by widespread flooding in the north. 3Q24 profit will be the year's bottom, though stable YoY on the offset of lower SSS in 3Q24TD with branch expansion and higher margin. Profit is expected to peak in 4Q24. Valuation is attractive and lower than peers, trading at 2024F PER of 17.8x (-2S.D.)
AP: It will benefit when interest rates begin to cycle down plus new stimulus from the new government to bring recovery to business and real estate in 2H24. 3Q24 net profit is expected to be the year's peak. Valuation is attractive, and dividend yield is high at around 8%.
|
Today’s reports
|
OSP - 2Q24: Core profit up YoY, QoQ
|
|
Click here to read and/or download Daily240826_E |
|