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ช่วงสั้นมอง SET จะ Sideway Up จากคาดหวังรัฐบาลใหม่เร่งกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจ ส่วน Fund Flow มองยังมีทิศทางไหลเข้าตลาดหุ้นไทยแต่ไม่แรง จากเศรษฐกิจไทยยังโตต่ำเมื่อเทียบกับประเทศอื่นๆ ในภูมิภาค กลยุทธ์ลงทุนจึงแนะนำ "Selective Buy" ใน 4 ธีม ดังนี้
1) นักลงทุนที่ต้องการเก็งกำไรหุ้นที่อยู่ในภาวะ Oversold และ Undervalue เลือก SCGP BCH KCE PTTGC OSP ขณะที่ให้เพิ่มความระมัดระวังการลงทุนในระยะสั้นสำหรับหุ้นที่อยู่ในภาวะ Overbought อย่าง COM7 VGI TRUE ADVANC
2) หุ้นที่คาดได้อานิสงส์จากความคาดหวังรัฐบาลใหม่จะเร่งออกมาตรการกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจระยะสั้น ซึ่งจะเป็นประโยชน์ต่อหุ้นที่เกี่ยวข้องกับสินค้าที่จำเป็นต่อการดำรงชีวิต แนะนำ CPALL CPAXT TNP OSP CBG
3) นักลงทุนที่ต้องการเก็งกำไรในหุ้นที่คาดได้อานิสงส์จากแนวโน้มดอกเบี้ยขาลง แนะนำ กลุ่มเช่าซื้อ (MTC, TIDLOR) กลุ่มอสังหาฯ (AP SPALI SIRI) กลุ่มค้าปลีก (CPALL CPAXT) กลุ่มโรงไฟฟ้า (GULF CKP)
4) หุ้นที่กลุ่ม Earnings Play ซึ่งมีโมเมนตัมกำไรยังดี โดย 3Q67 คาดเติบโต YoY และ QoQ ส่วน 2H67 คาดเติบโต HoH และ YoY อีกทั้ง Valuation ไม่แพง เลือก DELTA GULF BDMS BEM
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ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240830_T
| Weakening, foreign buying slowing |
| Market today |
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The SET is expected to weaken and cool off, while foreign buying is slowing down after US 2Q24 GDP came in higher than expected, which both strengthens the US dollar and weakens the baht. The index has supports at 1350 and 1345; the upper bound is limited at 1366 and 1372. Follow US PCE tonight.
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| Today’s highlights |
• The Deputy Finance Minister announced changes to the Bt10,000 digital handout program. The first round in September will prioritize 14mn state welfare cardholders, who won't need to re-register.
• The Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives reports over 700,000 rai of farmland has been affected by flooding. The Thai Chamber of Commerce estimates economic damage of Bt4-6bn and advises the government to prepare plans to support.
• The BoI is focusing on the rapid growth in the PCB industry, with investments from China, Taiwan, Japan, and Hong Kong. It is promoting raising the skill of the workforce to support Thailand as a leading global electronics manufacturing base.
• The US reported the second estimate of 2Q24 GDP growth at 3.0%, above the initial 2.8% estimate and market expectations, driven by consumer spending and private investment.
• The FPO reports continued economic support from tourism and strong export growth in July. However, the consumer confidence index dropped to 57.7 on concerns about the economic slowdown and rising living costs.
• The MoF set up two committees to manage its stock portfolio, focusing on selling shares and overall portfolio management. The ministry plans to sell about 25 unlisted companies worth Bt20bn that are not generating revenue for the state.
• MSCI index adjustments take effect today at market close. No additions were made to the Global Standard Index, but AWC, EA, GPSC, and IVL will be removed. The Global Small Cap Index will add 4 stocks and remove 13.
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| Strategy today |
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In the short term, the SET is expected to move sideways up, driven by hopes for stimulus packages from the new government in 3Q-4Q24; funds are still flowing into the Thai capital market but not strongly since Thailand's economy is growing more slowly than others in the region. Funds are expected to flow out of Energy, ICT and Electronics and into Bank, Commerce and Healthcare sectors. US inflation is expected to slow, which will support an interest rate cut by the Fed. China's PMI is expected to be weak, already partly in the market. Our strategy is "selective buy".
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| Trading today |
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In the short term the SET is expected to move sideways up driven by hopes for actions by the new government and stimulus packages, while funds continue to flow into the Thai capital market, though not strongly because its economy is moving slower than other regional economies. We recommend "Selective Buy" with four main themes:
1) Speculate on stocks that are both oversold and undervalued - SCGP, BCH, KCE, PTTGC and OSP; be cautious in the short term on stocks that are overbought - COM7, VGI, TRUE and ADVANC.
2) Stocks benefiting from hopes for new stimulus by the new government that will benefit companies tied to consumer staples - CPALL, CPAXT, TNP, OSP and CBG.
3) Speculate on stocks expected to benefit from a turn down in the interest rate cycle - leasing (MTC and TIDLOR), property development (AP, SPALI and SIRI), commerce (CPALL and CPAXT) and utilities (GULF and CKP).
4) Earnings plays with good profit momentum, with 3Q24 profit expected to grow YoY and QoQ, and growth YoY and HoH in 2H24 and with attractive valuations - DELTA, GULF, BDMS and BEM.
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| Daily top picks |
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KTB: The bank will benefit from more short-term stimulus from the government. 2H24 profit is expected to grow YoY and bring 2024 profit growth to 11% on lower credit cost, growing loans, higher NIM and growing fee revenue, while having less quality asset risk compared to others and an attractive valuation at PER 2024F of 6.3x (-2S.D.).
BCP: In the short term sentiment will be boosted by rising oil price after Libya halted production and Iraq's plans to cut production. 3Q24 profit is expected to grow on a strong refinery margin and stable oil price. Valuation is attractive, trading at 2024F PER of less than 4x and PBV 2024F at 0.6x (-1.5 S.D.). It is paying an interim dividend of Bt0.60/share (XD on Sep 4)
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Today’s reports
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Finance - Not yet out of the woods; Prefer MTC
FTREIT - Forging ahead with strength
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