สวัสดีตอนเช้า - 27 มิ.ย. 2567 เคลื่อนไหวในกรอบ รอปัจจัยใหม

The SET is expected to be range-bound, with the upper bound at resistances of 1325 and 1330 and the lower bound at supports of 1310 and 1300 as it waits for a new catalyst to determine direction. Tomorrow there will be key economic data, the US PCE, which the market uses to evaluate the Fed’s interest rate direction.

• US Consumer Confidence Index in June reported by the Conference Board, decreased MoM. The coincident economics index improved in June, but the expectations index for the next six months declined.
• The EIA reported an increase in US crude oil inventories of 3.6mn bbl, contrary to expectations of a 2.9mn bbl decrease. Gasoline stocks rose by 2.7mn bbl against predictions of a 1mn bbl decline.
• The MPC expects continued economic recovery in 2H24, supported by tourism, exports, private consumption and government investment, which will lead GDP to meet expectations of 2.6% growth this year. However, there are concerns that adjusting the inflation framework could impact price stability.
• The BoT said the LTV (loan-to-value) measure is not the root cause of problems in the real estate sector, and that its appropriateness is being reviewed. The automotive industry is slowing down due to declining credit availability and increased loan rejections. The BoT is also planning to discuss with major non-bank business operators concrete measures to assist debtors, which it has been introducing since January 2024.
• The Cabinet approved the establishment of a board to implement the Cloud First Policy, aiming to attract foreign investment and drive cloud usage by government agencies. This includes management structure, procurement and migration of government systems to the cloud.
• The Ministry of Finance is considering additional economic stimulus measures while waiting for the digital wallet measure later this year. However, details can only be disclosed after approval from the economic cabinet.

In the short term, the SET is still volatile and fragile from prolonged pressure from politics, and it will continue to underperform the region. However, there are economic hopes lying in industrial production and the release of the MPC minutes that may signal recovery in the manufacturing sector. There is a new catalyst building confidence in the capital market: raising the maximum investment limit for TESG funds and the uptick measures starting on Jul 1. Externally, there is no new catalyst this week. Follow US PCE in May, which is expected to be stable MoM and 2.6%YoY (slowing from 2.7%YoY in April); this will not exert much pressure on the market. “Selective Buy”.

Political risk is making the Thai capital market volatile and fragile, while there is no new catalyst from outside. We recommend “Selective Buy” with four main themes:
1) Global plays: Companies whose profit is expected to continue to recover and the benefit from a global recovery will be sufficient to offset domestic turmoil – KCE, SCGP, TU and MINT.
2) Stocks expected to benefit from short covering after the SET implements the uptick rule on July 1, 2024 – HANA, BEM, KCE, MINT, OSP, BBL, SCGP and AOT.
3) Stocks expected to benefit from the EURO 2024 football competition between June 14-July 14, 2024, - ADVANC, TRUE, CPALL, MINT and TU.
4) Tension has eased about the situation in the Middle East, leading Brent down to the lower bound of US$80-90/bbl, which is seen as an opportunity to hedge. For high-risk takers, we recommend an upstream oil stock – PTTEP.

AOT: The stock price has fallen by 2.5%WTD, already discounting the negatives, while profit will head up in line with tourism. FY2024 core profit is expected to shoot up 150% to Bt23bn and then grow 23% to Bt28bn in FY2025. 3QFY24 core profit (Apr–Jun 2024) is expected to grow YoY but decline QoQ on seasonality.
ADVANC: 2Q24 profit is expected to grow YoY from improving tourism-related and mobile phone revenue with an insignificant rise in management expense expected due to cost synergy starting to be seen. 2024 profit is expected to grow to Bt31.6bn (+10.9%).