ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240709_T | Limited upside |
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| Market today | | The SET has rebounded close to resistances at 1325 and 1335, where upside is limited. The market is waiting for the Fed chairman’s speech to the Congress. Therefore, be cautious on risk-averse selling, which may pressure the index. Supports are at 1310 and 1300. | | Today’s highlights | • The Ministry of Finance said the digital wallet subcommittee will meet to finalize conditions on July 10, then submit its decision to the full committee on July 15. The Prime Minister will announce the registration schedule on July 24, with the bill expected to go to cabinet on July 30.
• The Excise Department has asked for another Bt7bn from the central budget to subsidize 35,000 more EVs. This is awaiting cabinet consideration.
• The NBTC has set July 13 as the deadline for identity verification for users with 6-100 SIM cards, a measure to prevent mobile phone misuse or illegal activities.
• Hurricane Beryl's influence has forced the closure of several refineries and ports in the Gulf of Mexico. Shell suspended oil production from the Perdido platform, which produces about 100,000 barrels/day or 5.5% of total production from the Gulf of Mexico.
• Bloomberg reports China's solar energy industry is facing oversupply issues after overproduction in recent years. Several major companies reported losses in 1Q24 after selling products below cost.
• Boeing stock edged up 0.55%DoD after reaching an agreement with the US Justice Department, admitting fault and paying fines in exchange for ending the investigations into 737 MAX crashes.
• Deloitte data shows a significant decrease in IPOs in Southeast Asian markets in 1H24 due to high interest rates, with market cap down 71% to just US$5.8bn. | | Strategy today | | In the short term, the SET is still fragile and range-bound due to prolonged political uncertainties. The Constitutional Court has scheduled a hearing on the PM’s qualification for July 10 and the Move Forward Party dissolution on July 17. The market is expected to be supported by external factors as the Fed is likely to signal an easing in monetary policy after US CPI slowed in June to 3.1%YoY from 3.3%YoY in May as well as slowing job market figures. Our strategy is “Selective Buy”. | | Trading today | Thai capital market is seen to still be fragile and range-bound while waiting for some political clarity and a new catalyst. We recommend "Selective Buy" with four main themes:
1) Stocks expected to benefit from short covering after the SET implemented the uptick rule on July 1 and which also have SETESG ratings between AAA to A - HANA, TOP, BEM, MINT, OSP, BBL, SCGP and AOT.
2) Stocks expected to benefit from changes in conditions for the ThaiESG fund: raising deductions to up to Bt300,000 and reducing the holding period to five years - ADVANC, CPALL, BDMS, BBL, BEM and GULF.
3) Global plays whose profit is expected to grow and which benefit from global economic recovery over domestic plays, which face multiple uncertainties -SCGP, TU and MINT. (We recommend buy SCGP on price dips when pressured by weak Chinese economic figures.)
4) Tension has eased about the situation in the Middle East, leading Brent down to the lower bound of US$80-90/bbl, which is seen as an opportunity to hedge. For high-risk takers, we recommend an upstream oil stock - PTTEP. | | Daily top picks | CPALL: 2Q24 core profit is expected to grow 26%, outperforming its sector, backed by higher sales and margin and more contribution from CPAXT. 2H24 profit is expected to also grow YoY and again outperform the sector. CPALL is seen as a sector proxy, positioned to benefit from the digital wallet (upside to forecast).
HANA: Profit is expected to gradually recover in 2Q24 and clearly improve in 2H24, supported by the replacement cycle for AI smartphones, RFID and PMS businesses, which will not be impacted by higher gold and copper cost as it is able to pass the higher cost on to customers; it also will have little impact from a raise in minimum wage. | | Today’s reports | CPALL (High conviction) – Backed by solid growth, digital wallet progress
AEONTS – The worst is priced in, gradual recovery ahead
AP – 2Q24 presales up YoY and QoQ
CPAXT – Preview 2Q24F: Growing YoY | | | | Click here to read and/or download Daily240709_E |
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