เนื้อหาโดยรวม
Airbnb (ABNB) เผยงบ 3Q23 ดีกว่าคาด โดยรายได้เพิ่มขึ้น 18% YoY หนุนจากการจองต่อคืนที่เติบโต 15% YoY และการเดินทางระหว่างประเทศที่ยังคงมีแนวโน้มที่ดี โดยการจอง cross-border nights (การจองที่พักในต่างประเทศ) เพิ่มขึ้น 17% YoY นอกจากนี้ผู้ให้บริการที่พักมีการสมัครเพิ่มขึ้น 19% YoY สะท้อนอุปทานที่เพิ่มขึ้น
ถึงแม้งบจะออกมาดูดีและเติบโต แต่อย่างไรก็ดีด้วยภาพ 1) ราคาเฉลี่ยต่อคืนของที่พักแบบหนึ่งห้องนอน ในเดือนก.ย. ที่เพิ่มขึ้นพียง 1% YoY ส่งผลให้ภาพการเติบโตยังจำกัด 2) ความเสี่ยงด้านกฎระเบียบที่เพิ่มขึ้น และคาดว่าจะส่งผลกระทบต่ออุปทานหรือการเติบโตของห้องพักในแคนาดาและนิวยอร์ค 3) แนวโน้มคาดการณ์รายได้ใน 4Q23 อยู่ที่ $2.13bn-$2.17bn ซึ่งต่ำกว่าคาดที่ $2.18bn หลังบริษัทให้เหตุผลว่า ปัจจัยมหภาคที่มีความผันผวนมากขึ้นอาจส่งผลให้ความต้องการการเดินทางชะลอตัวลง
ทำให้ตลาดตอบสนองเชิงลบต่อหุ้น ABNB และราคาปรับตัวลงในช่วง After Hours -2.8%
02 November 2023
Airbnb, Inc.
Bloomberg ABNB.US
Reuters ABNB.N
While Airbnb surpassed expectations in 3Q23, its forecast for 4Q23 fell short, attributed to unstable macroeconomic conditions.
Earnings Result
The company's outlook for the current quarter and fiscal year remains positive, with expectations for growth in bookings, active listings, and cross-border travel. They also aim to attract and retain more hosts and expand internationally. Financial performance indicators such as revenue, implied take rate, Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted EBITDA margin are anticipated to be positive. The company emphasizes their strategic priorities, investments, and expectations for travel trends and the industry. They also highlight their focus on long-term stays and enhancing their products and services. However, it is important to consider the potential risks and uncertainties that may impact actual results.
Significant growth in net income
In Q3 2023, the company experienced significant growth in net income, with a net income of $4.4 billion, a $3.2 billion improvement from Q3 2022. This increase was largely due to a one-time tax benefit of $2.8 billion from the release of a valuation allowance on certain deferred tax assets. Adjusted EBITDA also saw a 26% increase from Q3 2022, demonstrating the strength of the business and cost management. Overall, the company's financial performance in Q3 2023 showed positive growth and improved profitability.
Revenue growth driven by strength in travel demand
The revenue in Q3 2023 increased by 18% compared to Q3 2022,driven by growth in Nights and Experiences Booked, a modest increase in Average Daily Rate, and a favorable foreign exchange rate. The company experienced strong growth in Nights and Experiences Booked in all regions, with Asia Pacific leading the way. Gross Booking Value reached $18.3 billion, representing a 17% year-over-year increase. The company saw growth in North America, EMEA, and Latin America, with cross-border nights booked showing strong year-over-year growth.
Balance sheet and cashflow
Between December 31, 2022, and September 30, 2023, the company's total assets grew from $16.0 billion to $21.4 billion, with $11.0 billion in liquid assets. Operating activities generated $1.3 billion in net cash in Q3 2023, up from $964 million in Q3 2022. The company also repurchased $500 million of Class A common stock in Q3 2023, showcasing a robust financial position.
Risks and concerns
In September 2023, Local Law 18 in NYC prohibited short-term rentals, negatively impacting tourism and residents dependent on home sharing, highlighting Airbnb's vulnerability to regulatory changes. Additionally, Airbnb faces risks from the COVID-19 pandemic aftermath, increasing competition, and various legal and regulatory shifts.
Business Outlook
For Q4 2023, Airbnb expects revenue growth of 12% to 14% compared to the previous year, with a slightly higher implied take rate. They anticipate a moderation in nights booked growth compared to Q3 2023, but stable to slightly higher average daily rates (ADR). The company also expects a record-high fourth quarter Adjusted EBITDA and margin that exceeds Q4 2022. They are closely monitoring macroeconomic trends and geopolitical conflicts that may impact travel demand.
The company's outlook for the current quarter and fiscal year remains positive, with expectations for growth in bookings, active listings, and cross-border travel. They also aim to attract and retain more hosts and expand internationally. Financial performance indicators such as revenue, implied take rate, Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted EBITDA margin are anticipated to be positive. The company emphasizes their strategic priorities, investments, and expectations for travel trends and the industry. They also highlight their focus on long-term stays and enhancing their products and services. However, it is important to consider the potential risks and uncertainties that may impact actual results.
Significant growth in net income
In Q3 2023, the company experienced significant growth in net income, with a net income of $4.4 billion, a $3.2 billion improvement from Q3 2022. This increase was largely due to a one-time tax benefit of $2.8 billion from the release of a valuation allowance on certain deferred tax assets. Adjusted EBITDA also saw a 26% increase from Q3 2022, demonstrating the strength of the business and cost management. Overall, the company's financial performance in Q3 2023 showed positive growth and improved profitability.
Revenue growth driven by strength in travel demand
The revenue in Q3 2023 increased by 18% compared to Q3 2022,driven by growth in Nights and Experiences Booked, a modest increase in Average Daily Rate, and a favorable foreign exchange rate. The company experienced strong growth in Nights and Experiences Booked in all regions, with Asia Pacific leading the way. Gross Booking Value reached $18.3 billion, representing a 17% year-over-year increase. The company saw growth in North America, EMEA, and Latin America, with cross-border nights booked showing strong year-over-year growth.
Balance sheet and cashflow
Between December 31, 2022, and September 30, 2023, the company's total assets grew from $16.0 billion to $21.4 billion, with $11.0 billion in liquid assets. Operating activities generated $1.3 billion in net cash in Q3 2023, up from $964 million in Q3 2022. The company also repurchased $500 million of Class A common stock in Q3 2023, showcasing a robust financial position.
Risks and concerns
In September 2023, Local Law 18 in NYC prohibited short-term rentals, negatively impacting tourism and residents dependent on home sharing, highlighting Airbnb's vulnerability to regulatory changes. Additionally, Airbnb faces risks from the COVID-19 pandemic aftermath, increasing competition, and various legal and regulatory shifts.
Business Outlook
For Q4 2023, Airbnb expects revenue growth of 12% to 14% compared to the previous year, with a slightly higher implied take rate. They anticipate a moderation in nights booked growth compared to Q3 2023, but stable to slightly higher average daily rates (ADR). The company also expects a record-high fourth quarter Adjusted EBITDA and margin that exceeds Q4 2022. They are closely monitoring macroeconomic trends and geopolitical conflicts that may impact travel demand.
| Revenue - %Chg YoY | 3Q22 | 4Q22 | 1Q23 | 2Q23 | 3Q23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International | 24.4% | -69.8% | -10.4% | 44.7% | 44.3% |
| United States | 32.3% | -66.7% | 2.2% | 28.9% | 28.6% |
| Sentiment | 4Q22 | 1Q23 | 2Q23 | 3Q23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| net profit | Positive | Positive | Positive | Positive |
| margin | Neutral | Neutral | Positive | Neutral |
| revenue | Positive | Positive | Positive | Positive |
| Stock data | |
|---|---|
| Market Cap (USD Million) | 77.33 |
| Beta | 1.75 |
| Last close | 119.47 |
| 12-m Low / High | 81.9 / 155 |
| Target price | 145.00 |
| Return Potential | 21.4 % |
| % of Buy / Sell rating | 41.0 % / 15.0 % |
| Valuation data | 12m Forward | 5-Yr Average |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 26.43 | |
| P/B | 8.40 | |
| P/S | 6.96 | |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.41 | 33.69 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0 % |
Airbnb, Inc.
Airbnb, Inc. operates an online marketplace for travel information and booking services. The Company offers lodging, home-stay, and tourism services via websites and mobile applications. Airbnb serves clients worldwide.
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