สรุปตลาดรายเดือน - เดือนมกราคม 2567

The SET is expected to cool in January with some slowing. We assign supports at 1400 and 1380. It is expected to continue to recovery, driven by anticipation of a rate cut at the March FOMC meeting. A close above 1,400 is a positive technical signal. Resistances are assigned at 1430 and 1450.

In December, the SET managed to end above 1400. In the first half of the month, the market declined steadily, touch a three-year plus low at 1374, driven down by skepticism towards government measures, a fragile economy, and the risk of slower growth than forecast due to lower tourist numbers than targeted. However, the SET rebounded in the latter half of the month, buoyed by external factors after the Fed hinted it was ending the interest rate hike cycle and preparing for more rate cuts next year than had been expected. This change in mood pulled the market above 1400.

In Dec, foreign investors were net sellers for the eleventh month at Bt203mn vs. a net sell of Bt19.4bn in Oct. Throughout the month, funds flowed into most stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region. Foreign investors were net buyers in Taiwan (US$4.26bn), South Korea (US$2.45bn), Indonesia (US$0.37bn), the Philippines (US$0.01bn) and Malaysia (US$0.01bn). Funds exited Thailand (US$0.12bn) and Vietnam (US$0.44bn). In 2023, foreign investors net sold more than US$5.50bn in the Thai stock market, the highest in the region, with a net buy in South Korea (US$9.52bn) and Taiwan (US$5.83bn).

Expecting a January Effect, with foreign investors potentially returning to buy Thai stocks. We continue to emphasize investment in stocks with specific individual factors. Additionally, if the SET stays above 1400, there might some short covering. Therefore, our investment strategy is "Selective Buy" as follows: 1) stocks that benefit from decreasing bond yield, such as those in power generation, healthcare, real estate and consumer finance; 2) stocks that may be supported by short covering;
3) stocks that will benefit from the "Easy E-refund" tax deduction measure that offers a deduction of up to Bt50,000 on purchases from personal income tax from January 1 to February 15, 2024, particularly the Commerce sector.

This month:Domestic: 1) Jan 5 – CPI for Dec; 2) Jan 12 – Consumer confidence for Dec 3) Jan 24 – Trade balance for Dec. Foreign: 1) Jan 2 – CN Caixin manufacturing PMI for Dec; 2) Jan 3 – US ISM manufacturing PMI for Dec; 3) Jan 4 – US ADP nonfarm payrolls for Dec; 4) Jan 5 – EU CPI flash estimate for Dec, US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for Dec; 5) Jan 11 – US CPI for Dec; 6) Jan 12 – US PPI for Dec; 7) Jan 17 – CN GDP for 4Q23; 8) Jan 25 – ECB meeting, US GDP for 4Q23.