The 1Q24 net loss of Bt54mn was disappointing, brought by low product spread and losses from an associate in the ethanol business. Adding to the QoQ fall was no repeat of the Bt60mn non-recurring gain recorded in 4Q23; net stock loss was stable QoQ at Bt3mn. Core earnings were still in the red at Bt103mn as adjusted EBITDA margin remained low, down QoQ. Given the disappointing 1Q24 and dim outlook, we slash our 2024F profit to only Bt43mn (from Bt479mn), expecting a gradual recovery in 2H24. We also cut TP to Bt7.7 from Bt10, based on 0.8x PBV (2024F); our rating remains Underperform. Methyl ester (biodiesel): hurt by weak margin. EBITDA contribution from ME sank 73% QoQ due to a plunge in adjusted EBITDA margin to 0.4% in 1Q24 from 2.8% in 4Q23 and lower inventory gain. Adjusted EBITDA margin was eroded by high competition in the biodiesel market in Thailand and weaker product spread for glycerin, a byproduct from ME production. Sales volume rose 8.7% QoQ to 79.4kt vs. 5-year average of 87.7kt/quarter, driven by an improving tourism industry but fell 8.2% from 1Q23 when one local producer was shut down for maintenance. ME plant utilization remained low at 63% but did rise from 58% in 4Q23. This was also a factor leading to the segment’s low EBITDA margin.
Fatty alcohol: EBITDA margin hit by high feedstock cost. FA segment EBITDA contribution fell 64% YoY and 60% QoQ to Bt55mn despite high FA price. Behind this was higher cost for feedstock CPKO on increased demand in the region for oleochemicals and demand for butter substitutes. Demand for FA declined QoQ as fourth quarter is its high season. Adjusted EBITDA margin halved to 5.9% in 1Q24 from 11.7% in 4Q23 as plant utilization rate slowed to 105% from 120% in 4Q23. Profit was also eroded by inventory loss of Bt23mn. Revise our 2024F down. After the disappointment in 1Q24F, we slash our 2024 profit forecast to Bt43mn from Bt479mn to reflect the weak EBITDA margin for both ME and FA. Biodiesel price is expected to have peaked in Mar 2024 and has already come down 7% in the past three months, reflecting fading market concern on CPO supply during a drought caused by El Niño in 2023. We believe demand for biodiesel and fatty alcohol will remain weak throughout the year while product spread will remain pressured by high cost for feedstock CPKO. Product spread for ME will continue to be attacked by high competition in the market. TP trimmed to Bt7.7/share based on 0.8x PBV (2024F). As the earnings recovery is turning out to be more gradual than earlier expected, we trim TP from Bt10 to Bt7.7/share, based on 0.8x PBV (2024F) or -2SD of 5-year average. The TP implies 8.5x EV/EBITDA vs. 5-year average of 10.6x. Risk factors: Volatile CPO and CPKO prices may cause stock loss and lower product spread. The government’s wobbly policy on the biodiesel mandate for domestic high-speed diesel also hurts demand for ME in the medium term. |