1Q24 net profit was Bt3.7bn (Bt0.31/share), surging QoQ from Bt193mn in 4Q23 and up 25% YoY as expected, driven by higher gross profit/liter for the mobility segment and strong EBITDA margin and sales volume for the lifestyle segment (F&B). It also booked an FX gain of Bt864mn vs. FX loss of Bt450mn in 4Q23. We expect further earnings growth in 2Q24 on more holidays in Thailand, despite pressure on marketing margin from high oil price. We maintain our forecast 16% growth in net profit to Bt13.3bn in 2024F based on a conservative gross profit of Bt1/liter, up slightly from Bt0.99 in 2023. OR share price (-3M) has risen 2%, slightly outperforming the SET (-2%), to trade at 16.7x P/E (2024F), much below 3-year average of 27x. Rated Outperform with TP of Bt27, based on 14x EV/EBITDA. Mobility segment: seasonally lower sales volume. Mobility segment sales volume fell 7.5% YoY and 7.2% QoQ in 1Q24 to 6.5bn liters on lower diesel and gasoline sales volume (high season is 4Q) and the hit from an accusation in social media that some PTT service stations in the provinces were cheating on the quantity of fuel. This dragged its market share down to 39.9% in 1Q24 from 42% (end-2023). The issue has been resolved, and management expects sales volume to recover gradually over the rest of the year. An offset was provided by a higher gross profit of Bt1.12/liter (+11% YoY and +49% QoQ), including ~Bt330mn stock gain. Retail marketing margin remained healthy, especially for gasoline, while diesel margin continued to be pressured by the government’s regulated price.
Lifestyle segment: EBITDA margin wider QoQ. EBITDA contribution from the lifestyle segment widened 24% YoY and 6% QoQ in 1Q24 on a better EBITDA margin of 26.9% vs. 25.6% in 4Q23 and higher sales at Café Amazon (+9% QoQ) to a record 99mn cups, partly from a promotional campaign in Feb; it continues to control expenses. Café Amazon’s cup sold per outlet grew 7.6% QoQ as outlet numbers grew 1% QoQ.
Global segment: more sales volume in the Philippines. The Philippines was important for the segment’s profit in 1Q24, with EBITDA rising to Bt325mn from only Bt3mn in 4Q23. This also turned operating profit around from a loss in 4Q23 to profit of Bt161mn in 1Q24, though this was only 4% of total operating profit for the quarter. An associate in the global segment turned from contribution of profit from investment in joint ventures to a loss of Bt86mn in 1Q24 due to the impact of FX adjustment for the business in Myanmar of Bt255mn.
Profit growth to continue up. We expect profit to maintain its upward momentum in 2024F with growth of 16% vs. +7% in 2023, fueled by higher sales volume for all three segments, mobility, lifestyle and global, in turned backed by expansion of service stations and non-oil outlets. This assumes gross profit for the mobility segment at Bt1/liter and EBITDA margin for the lifestyle segment at 25%, slightly below 25.4% in 2023. We maintain our TP of Bt27, based on EV/EBITDA (2024F) of 14x, the average retail business multiple in the Thai market. This implies P/E (2024F) of 24x, slightly lower than 3-year average of 27x for 2021-23 and PBV of 2.8x vs. 2021-23 average of 2.9x.
Risk factors: An economic slowdown would erode demand for OR’s oil and non-oil products while oil price volatility may cause more stock losses. Other risks are government intervention in capping retail oil price, particularly diesel, and higher competition and production cost that cannot be passed on. |